375
FXUS64 KHUN 040409
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY, DUE
TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109F.
- AFTER A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY,
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
TO 40-80% FROM SUNDAY-FRIDAY (HIGHEST ON MONDAY).
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A MID-LEVEL HIGH (INITIALLY CENTERED ACROSS VA/NC) WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD, LEAVING A BROAD REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME,
AN MCV GENERATED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
EARLIER TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, AND MAY INITIATE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
MS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN TN (AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST AL) IN THE
10-12Z TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, WITH MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST, WE
WILL ADVERTISE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INCLUDE ONLY A LOW (10-20%) POP IN THE NORTHWEST. WITH A RAIN-
COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S, AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDE.
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A GENERAL ABSENCE
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW, AS THE DEPARTING MCV WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (FROM THE REGIME
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH) MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST AL
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST AL/SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN). DUE TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE
L-M 90S WITH A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM DUE TO
APPARENT TEMPS OF 105-109F.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
DURING THE TIMEFRAME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST)
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AS AN
AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
OT/QC. THIS, ALONG WITH THE POSITION OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF, WILL ALLOW LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO RETURN TO THE REGION, SUSTAINING PWAT VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 2".
AS THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO UNFOLD, A SMALL COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS (ORIGINATING TO OUR NORTHWEST) MAY SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING, PROPAGATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
IN ITS WAKE (EARLY SUNDAY MORNING) APPEARS UNLIKELY, CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS IL/IN/OH. WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR REGION, ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW-INITIATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL LIKELY UNFOLD ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL
REMAIN POSITIONED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. REGARDING STORM IMPACTS,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CAPE AS WE
PROGRESS INTO MONDAY, LARGELY AS A RESULT OF MOISTENING PROFILES
ALOFT. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER
EACH DAY, BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE U80S-L90S BY MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING
IN THE L-M 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARD THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THIS RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THEREFORE TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES WON'T
BE QUITE AS HOT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE TN VALLEY OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PWATS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE 2-2.2" RANGE AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. DAILY
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
POCKETS OF LGT RA (REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION) WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHERN AL/SOUTHERN TN THRU 2Z BEFORE DISSIPATING, AND
WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION,
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA APPEARS UNLIKELY THRU SUNRISE. AS AN
OVERCAST LAYER OF DEBRIS CLOUDS BEGINS TO DISPERSE ~4Z, LGT/VRBL-
CALM FLOW AND GROUND MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
(WARRANTING A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS BTWN 8-12Z). AT
THIS POINT, COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
BE GREATEST TO THE NORTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND WE WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER, FEW-SCT CU CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BENEATH A SCT LAYER OF CI.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page