243
FXUS64 KHUN 042056
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
356 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY, WITH SOME
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING UP TO 106F.
- AFTER LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
(30-50%), AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
TO 40-80% FROM SUNDAY-FRIDAY (HIGHEST ON MONDAY/TUESDAY).
- SOME STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS.
- A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER NW ALABAMA NEAR THE
MS/AL BORDER. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
OCCURRING IN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. CLOUD COVER TODAY
HAS KEPT NORTHERN ALABAMA A BIT MORE STABLE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED TO PUSH SBCAPE VALUES INTO THE 2500 TO 3500
J/KG RANGE. SPC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1300 J/KG
OVER THE AREA. LAPSE RATE (ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL) ARE NOT THAT
GOOD, BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED TO AROUND 7.5
DEGREES/KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW IMPRESSIVE THETA E
DIFFERENCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15-20 GENERALLY).
FORCING MAY NOT REALLY MOVE INTO NW ALABAMA TO HELP PROMOTE MORE
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THIS EVENING, WHEN INSTABILITY
AND DCAPE VALUES MAY START TO WANE. THAT BEING SAID SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM IN
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD PUSH EAST THIS EVENING, BUT
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS NOT CLEAR. FOR NOW, KEPT WITH 30 TO 50
PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH A FEW
COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DIVIDED ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM
AND PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW, KEPT WITH
GUIDANCE, WHICH DISSIPATES CHANCES AFTER 1 AM. HOWEVER, THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS/EXTREME WESTERN
TN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS STRONG LIFT OVER THE
AREA STARTING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR REMAINS
EXTREMELY WEAK. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURST POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT SHOULD BE COOLER AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON SBCAPE COULD CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 J/KG AGAIN. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THIS
ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT AND LOSE IT INTENSITY.
THIS TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE VERY QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING PERIOD MOSTLY WITH
MORE SCATTERED CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PWATS WILL BE
IN PLACE, SO FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL INCREASE DURING THAT
PERIOD. SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. THIS WET
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGHS MUCH MORE PLEASANT (UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S). THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE HUMID, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 96 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE MOSTLY. SO MAKE SURE TO
REMAIN HYDRATED IF WORKING OUTSIDE, EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARD THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THIS RIDGE
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THEREFORE TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES WON'T
BE QUITE AS HOT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS PAST WEEK. AN AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE TN VALLEY OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PWATS WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE 2-2.2" RANGE AND WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE GIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. DAILY
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z AT KHSV AND
23Z AT KMSL. THEN SCATTERED TSRA COULD AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
(KHSV FROM 22Z TO 04Z/KMSL FROM 23Z TO 02Z). THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING AT KMSL THAN KHSV, THUS A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE PERIOD FOR KMSL WAS INCLUDED AND ONLY A PROB30 GROUP
FOR KHSV. DURING THESE PERIODS, AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
MET (POTENTIALLY LOWER THRESHOLDS). EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 06Z
BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z PRIMARILY. FOR NOW, ONLY INCLUDED VSBY
REDUCTION TO MVFR, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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