232
FXUS64 KHUN 051740
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 846 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL TODAY.
- A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 846 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A BIG PICTURE VIEW THIS MORNING HAS THE POLAR JET LOCATED NORTH
OF THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA BORDER, WITH A NUMBER OF UPPER
LOWS INVOLVED WITH IT. OF MORE INTEREST LOCALLY IS TROUGHING
FEATURE DEVELOPING FROM THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OZARKS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE MID WEEK, WHILE UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO. JUST THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH AND
LOWER HEIGHTS WILL HELP REDUCE THE ELEVATED HEAT THAT IMPACTED THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY LAST WEEK.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA, WHICH IS INVOLVED WITH THE CONUS
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE OZARKS LATE MON, AND THEN
MOVING ALONG THE IN/KY BORDER WED-THU. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE
ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGHING FEATURE OVER THIS REGION.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THIS MORNING IS STARTING OUT MORE UNSTABLE, WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1200 J/KG AT BMX. AREA SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATED ~1.9" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR IS LOW GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE INTO THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD EXPECT GREATER
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RISING ABOVE 2000 J/KG LATER TODAY. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING IN FROM THE SW MAY TEMPER THE
HIGHEST INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. THERE ARE MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LURKING OVER THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT'S AND THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION. DAYTIME HEATING ALONG LIFT FROM THE BOUNDARIES COULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. A GOOD SIZED
SWATCH OF THE NATION FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE COASTAL MID
ATLANTIC (INCLUDING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY) IS IN A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE MAIN RISK FROM THE STRONGER AND
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH. A
STILL VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, EVEN WITH STORMS MOVING 5-10 MPH.
ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE STORMS ARE ALSO A RISK, WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING POSING A DANGER TO THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE, MORE CLOUDS, AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S, WITH SOME
MID 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. HEAT INDEX READINGS COULD RISE TO 105
DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. AREAL COVERAGE AND A LOWER RISK OF
THESE VALUES EXCEEDING BASELINE THRESHOLD IS TOO LOW REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY.
MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FOLLOWING A DIURNAL
COOLING TREND IN THE EVENING, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOVE WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO THE
LATE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO IN THE LOWER 70S. THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING RAINS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 846 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
DURING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS AN ALREADY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEARING 2" WILL SUPPORT VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THUS THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER, AS
WELL AS A FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS ALSO A THREAT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
GOOD RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD "COOLER," IN
THE UPPER 80S.
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER MON NIGHT WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, BUT THEY LIKELY WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING NEARBY. LOW TEMPERATURES MON NIGHT SHOULD
COOL TO AROUND 70. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, SIMILAR WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ON A DIURNAL TREND, WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE
APPEARS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END TUE NIGHT, WITH LOWS
AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A WARM AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEK, KEEPING THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2 INCHES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IF SLOW MOVING STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HEATING OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, ALONG WITH MANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ON-GOING AND RECENT CONVECTION, WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50KT. VSBY/CIGS IN THE TAF ARE FORECAST TO BE REDUCED TO
MVFR; HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN LOWER MINIMUMS IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS,
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. AT THE
MOMENT, WE'RE HOLDING ON TO MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS, BUT WILL AMEND
SHOULD CONDITIONS WORSEN. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATTER
PORTION OF THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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