723
FXUS64 KHUN 051956
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 846 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL TODAY.
- A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON, SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT OVER OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS NW ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF NE MISSISSIPPI. HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT, ESPECIALLY THE
HRRR AND ARW HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH COVERAGE
DIMINISHING AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEAR 2", VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN REALIZED.
THUS RUNOFF FROM SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER AND A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THIS CONVECTION. THOSE INVOLVED WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITY SHOULD
SEEK SAFE SHELTER SHOULD STORMS NEAR YOUR LOCATION.
DEPENDING UPON WHERE WETTING RAINFALL OCCURS, DECREASING CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WIND FORECAST IN THE OVERNIGHT COULD MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH OF IT
WILL FORM AND IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE IS LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WAS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 846 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
DURING MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS AN ALREADY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEARING 2" WILL SUPPORT VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THUS THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER, AS
WELL AS A FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS ALSO A THREAT. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
GOOD RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD "COOLER," IN
THE UPPER 80S.
SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER MON NIGHT WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, BUT THEY LIKELY WILL NOT GO AWAY ENTIRELY WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING NEARBY. LOW TEMPERATURES MON NIGHT SHOULD
COOL TO AROUND 70. WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, SIMILAR WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ON A DIURNAL TREND, WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE
APPEARS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END TUE NIGHT, WITH LOWS
AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A WARM AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RIDGE IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEK, KEEPING THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.8-2 INCHES LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IF SLOW MOVING STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HEATING OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, ALONG WITH MANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM ON-GOING AND RECENT CONVECTION, WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50KT. VSBY/CIGS IN THE TAF ARE FORECAST TO BE REDUCED TO
MVFR; HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN LOWER MINIMUMS IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS,
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. AT THE
MOMENT, WE'RE HOLDING ON TO MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS, BUT WILL AMEND
SHOULD CONDITIONS WORSEN. ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATTER
PORTION OF THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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