858
FXUS64 KHUN 060525
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1225 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND BRIEF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY AS THE COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AL AND
NORTHEAST MS. THUS, NOT ANTICIPATING A RESURGENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY REMAINING LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN DISSIPATING
SOON AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY, SO WILL
MAINTAIN THAT IN THE FORECAST DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS.
ON MONDAY, THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FIELD AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONE
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK MCV MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARKS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S TO 90 IN VALLEY AREAS AND LOWER 80S ATOP
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS CONCERN FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAIN GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 VALLEYS (MIDDLE 80S PLATEAU), WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLIES AND DIRECTED EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS HAPPENS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MO VALLEY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 5H WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TN VALLEY AS A RESULT. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TIED
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ONLY LOW MAINLY
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP, PEAKING AT 50-80% SATURDAY, DROPPING TO
40-60% SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY, AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD IN VFR THRESHOLDS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN BR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH
KHSV AND KMSL. DURING THIS TIME SCT LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 500-1000 FT
ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE BY
AROUND 13Z. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE PUSHED BACK FORECAST TIMING
FOR TSRA TO 21Z-01Z BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME IN TIMING. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND AFTER SUNDOWN WITH LIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KG
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