775
FXUS64 KHUN 060820
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND BRIEF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS HAVE BEGUN TO DIP DOWN TO VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN A HALF OF A MILE. AREAS THAT RECEIVED A GOOD BIT OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. IF DENSE FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
REGARDLESS, MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AND GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME TO GET TO WHERE YOU
NEED TO GO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, ATTENTION TURNS TO STORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(45-80 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. PWATS ON THE BMX 00Z SOUNDING HITTING
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH 1.81 INCHES. SEVERE RISK LOOKS LOW
WITH LIMITED SHEAR TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, A COUPLE MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE SHORT-LIVED, STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE
VALUES ABOVE 800 J/KG AND SMALL HAIL. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD
ALSO LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
FOR MOTORISTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN A THREAT
WITH ANY CONVECTION FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOVER AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE IN
THE UPPER 80S WITH "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS OR HEAT INDICES IN THE
UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARKS WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS CONCERN FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAIN GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 VALLEYS (MIDDLE 80S PLATEAU), WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLIES AND DIRECTED EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS HAPPENS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MO VALLEY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 5H WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TN VALLEY AS A RESULT. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TIED
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ONLY LOW MAINLY
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP, PEAKING AT 50-80% SATURDAY, DROPPING TO
40-60% SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY, AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD IN VFR THRESHOLDS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN BR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AT BOTH
KHSV AND KMSL. DURING THIS TIME SCT LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 500-1000 FT
ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE BY
AROUND 13Z. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE PUSHED BACK FORECAST TIMING
FOR TSRA TO 21Z-01Z BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME IN TIMING. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND AFTER SUNDOWN WITH LIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KG
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