297
FXUS64 KHUN 062300
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
600 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A LOW RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND BRIEF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PROGRESS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE
MOST PLENTIFUL SHOWERS WERE FROM JUST SOUTH OF HUNTSVILLE TO NEAR
BIRMINGHAM. OTHER ACTIVITY EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF LAWRENCEBURG TO
THE BANKHEAD NATIONAL FORECAST. GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS EAST AROUND 10 MPH. SO FAR, OVERALL STORM STRENGTH HAS BEEN
WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID, STORMS CAN PRODUCE
STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WAS MINIMIZING
A FLOODING RISK.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL, LIGHT WINDS, AND MID/HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUDS - COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. SOME OF
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE FORMATION AND COVERAGE OF FOG.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION TUE/WED. THIS IN ITSELF WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER. ANY FOG THAT FORMS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
INSTABILITY WILL BRING LOW/MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS TODAY IS, OVERALL STORM
STRENGTH SHOULD REMAIN "GENERAL" WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUE SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO
INTO THE NIGHT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TUE NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO
AROUND 70. WED FORECAST SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER, IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90, WITH HEAT INDEXES FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLIES AND DIRECTED EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS HAPPENS WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MO VALLEY ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WESTERLY FLOW AT 5H WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TN VALLEY AS A RESULT. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TIED
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ONLY LOW MAINLY
AFTERNOON CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP, PEAKING AT 50-80% SATURDAY, DROPPING TO
40-60% SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY, AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
MOST PART.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THIS EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. INCLUDED A PROB 30
GROUP FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...GH
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