821
FXUS64 KHUN 070815
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 902 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENTLY, FOG (AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS) CAN BE
SEEN ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THIS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL YESTERDAY SUCH
AS NW AL. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISN'T ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN CASE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IF YOU'RE TRAVELING
THIS MORNING AND ENCOUNTER FOG, MAKE SURE TO USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS AND KEEP PLENTY OF SPACE IN BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE
IN FRONT OF YOU. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-
MORNING WITH THE SUNRISE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO PIVOT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT, WEAKENING AS IT DOES. A
WEAK, STALLED BOUNDARY IS ALSO SHOWN TO BE DRAPED OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, NORTHWEST ALABAMA, AND UP INTO TENNESSEE. GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
PWATS BETWEEN 1.4-1.7 INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING 1.7-1.9
INCHES OR SO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
DAY WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEREFORE
ANTICIPATED, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THESE STORMS WILL BE OF OUR USUAL, SUMMERTIME VARIETY THAT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, SINCE THERE IS MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
REGARDLESS, MAKE SURE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY IF YOU WORK
OUTDOORS OR HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS,
GO INDOORS! SEE A FLASH, DASH INSIDE!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SIT UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS
A RESULT, THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S. LOW CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE EACH
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIVERS AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL
NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS, IT WILL
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, ONLY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA AT
ISSUANCE. THE EXCEPTION WAS OVER PORTIONS OF NE AL, WHERE LOWER
VIS WAS REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR. THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DENSE
IN SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS, NEXT TO BODIES OF
WATER, AND WHERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. CURRENT
GUIDANCE AND THINKING IS THAT THE HSV TERMINAL MAY SEE SLIGHT
REDUCTIONS IN VIS; HOWEVER, WITH MORE RAIN HAVING FALLEN OVER NW
AL YESTERDAY, FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN VIS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE MSL
TERMINAL TO AT LEAST LOW-END MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. ANY FOG WILL
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIGS AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK.
EXPECTING MOST ACTIVITY TO WANE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS
OR SO THROUGH THE DAY (OUTSIDE OF STORMS), WITH CALM WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...26
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