203
FXUS64 KHUN 071742
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER SE MISSOURI WAS IN PART INDUCING
MEAN TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. AN
OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RATHER DEEP MOISTURE WAS PRESENT, WITH 12Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1.8" TO 2".
AREA TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE 80S WITH SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESS OVER FAR NE
MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR NW ALABAMA MOVING EAST 10-15 MPH. THE SHORT
TERM MODELS UNFORTUNATELY DID NOT FIRMLY CATCH THIS FEATURE. THE
MODELS HOWEVER WERE HINTING THAT WHATEVER OCCURS SHOULD GRADUALLY
FADE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID, THIS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WE CANNOT NOT RULE OUT STRONGER STORM WITH STRONG
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE MORE OVER NW ALABAMA,
WITH LOWER ODDS TO THE EAST. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SOME OR ALL OF
THE AREA AT TIMES IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND AWAY FROM SHOWERS, HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE INTO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE MID 90S TO 101 DEGREES.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE LATE NIGHT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOG WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NE ALABAMA AND ADJACENT
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AS WELL AS IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
WED-THU, WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNING FOR THE LATE WEEK. IN
A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF
1.6" TO 1.8", DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY "GENERAL" THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED, WITH A RISK OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER
90S. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD FADE WED NIGHT WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. LOWS AGAIN SHOULD FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AN ALMOST REPEAT FORECAST FOR THU WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX MID 90S TO 101 DEGREES.
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN THE MAIN
THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS. LOWS THU NIGHT SHOULD COOL
ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL
NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS, IT WILL
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, ONLY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WEST OF
WAYNESBORO, TO ACROSS THE NW ALABAMA QUAD CITIES, TO NW OF
BIRMINGHAM WAS PROGRESSING ENE 15-20KT. FROM EXTRAPOLATION THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE KMSL TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR,
THEN REACH KHSV BETWEEN 20-21Z. WIND GUSTS OF 25KT, AND MVFR CIG
AND VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EVEN LOWER
MINIMUMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR
STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION OVERALL SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO
THE EVENING. A RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE NIGHT
REMAINS, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE WETTING RAIN
(AMOUNTS >1/10 OF AN INCH). ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO LATE WED
MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...RSB
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