832
FXUS64 KHUN 072345
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
645 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WEST OF
PULASKI, TO EAST OF DECATUR, CULLMAN, AND NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM
WAS MOVING ENE 15-20 MPH. OVER MODEL OUTPUT TODAY (ESPECIALLY THE
SHORTER- RANGE) HAS NOT HANDLED THIS CONVECTION WELL. OUTPUT
HOWEVER WAS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S, SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE RISEN
TO AROUND 3000 J/KG, WITH 0-3KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C TO 8.5C. THIS
HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS, ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE
THIS EVENING WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE GFS/LAMP MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE LATE NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND, BUT A FEW WIND
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS, AS WELL AS AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT
WETTING RAINFALL WOULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE FOR FOG. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
WED-THU, WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNING FOR THE LATE WEEK. IN
A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF
1.6" TO 1.8", DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY "GENERAL" THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED, WITH A RISK OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER
90S. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD FADE WED NIGHT WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. LOWS AGAIN SHOULD FALL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AN ALMOST REPEAT FORECAST FOR THU WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX MID 90S TO 101 DEGREES.
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN THE MAIN
THREAT POSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS. LOWS THU NIGHT SHOULD COOL
ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIMIT
THE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THIS WILL
NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS, IT WILL
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, ONLY LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW AL. LEFT VCTS AS PREVAILING FOR
NOW BUT WILL LIKELY AMEND ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIES DOWN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MEDIUM CHANCES (40-50%) PEAKING NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page