619
FXUS64 KHUN 080355
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1055 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) ON
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DWINDLED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, WITH JUST A LONE SHOWER MOVING ACROSS THE
NW AL LANDSCAPE AS OF 10 PM. WITH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION NOW IN
PLACE AND LIMITED FORCING, LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY WOULD BE MOST PRONE TO ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ALONG
WITH THE PATCHY FOG THAT MAY TYPICALLY OCCUR IN THE NARROW VALLEYS
OF NE AL. THAT WOULD INCLUDE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CULLMAN COUNTY.
A MID/UPR CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISS VALLEY REGION
WILL TRANSFORM INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHEARED AS IT MOVES TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ON ITS
SE FLANK MAY ONCE AGAIN HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WHICH
AREAS MAY BE MORE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONE MIGHT
REASONABLY SUSPECT AREAS CLOSER TO THE PARENT UPR LOW. HOWEVER,
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN STREAMLINE ANALYSES (ALBEIT
WEAK) APPEARS FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH IS
COLLOCATED WITH A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THUS,
THE ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. APART FROM THESE OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS, CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL SFC HEATING AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS PERHAPS A WEAKER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR WEDNESDAY (THAN TUESDAY), ALTHOUGH SOME
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THUS DOWNDRAFTS COULD OCCUR CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE VERY SMALL.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ON THURSDAY THE SHEARED TENDRILS OF MID/UPR VORTICITY FOLLOWING
THE PARENT UPR LOW/WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA, AIDING IN THE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. THIS WOULD
PROBABLY BE FAVORED IN EASTERN AREAS PER THE GUIDANCE SUITE. POPS
ARE THUS A LITTLE HIGHER THERE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, MEAN MID/UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE IN THE TN/OH VALLEYS AMIDST AN INCREASE IN UPR
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT-FLOW JET. THIS
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOWS LEADING TO FURTHER CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA. THIS ACTUALLY GOES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK DOWNBURST"Y" BOTH DAYS, WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND HIGH VERTICAL
THETA-E DIFFERENCES PRESENT. CURRENTLY, WE'RE JUST OUTLOOKED FOR
"GENERAL" THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH MAY BE OWING PARTLY TO THE
COVERAGE EXPECTED, HOWEVER, THIS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THICK CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORM PRESENCE, CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL SUMMER-LIKE WITH HEAT INDICES STILL PUSHING
100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DAILY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
SO EXTREME HEAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT AT THIS POINT.
WITH THAT SAID, HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK WHICH WILL POSE A
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT OR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING OR HYDRATION.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME, AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2" MAY ALSO
RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION, AN UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW AL. LEFT VCTS AS PREVAILING FOR
NOW BUT WILL LIKELY AMEND ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DIES DOWN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MEDIUM CHANCES (40-50%) PEAKING NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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