987
FXUS64 KHUN 080848
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
348 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 348 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) ON
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACCORDING TO SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. LOWS MAY ULTIMATELY BE FEW DEGREES COOLER
(ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE),
BUT NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TOO MUCH MORE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, FOG REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN FACT, THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EITHER FOG DEVELOPMENT OR LOW STRATUS (OR A
COMBINATION) FOR MANY AREAS OVER NE AL, NORTH-CENTRAL AL, AND INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE SITES THAT
HAVE REPORTED DENSE FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AS WELL, BUT
THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD. REGARDLESS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONS IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE TRAVELING THIS MORNING, MAKE SURE TO USE
YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND KEEP PLENTY OF SPACE IN BETWEEN YOU
AND THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU. LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ERODE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. OUR FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%)
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING AND OUR FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
THIS AFTERNOON (SEE DETAILS BELOW), WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A MID/UPR CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISS VALLEY REGION
WILL TRANSFORM INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHEARED AS IT MOVES TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC LIFT ON ITS SE
FLANK MAY ONCE AGAIN HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WHICH AREAS
MAY BE MORE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. ONE MIGHT REASONABLY
SUSPECT AREAS CLOSER TO THE PARENT UPR LOW. HOWEVER, CONVERGENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN STREAMLINE ANALYSES (ALBEIT WEAK)
APPEARS FAVORED IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH IS
COLLOCATED WITH A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THUS,
THE ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. APART FROM THESE OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS, CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL SFC HEATING AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS PERHAPS A WEAKER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR WEDNESDAY (THAN TUESDAY), ALTHOUGH SOME
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THUS DOWNDRAFTS COULD OCCUR CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE VERY SMALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ON THURSDAY THE SHEARED TENDRILS OF MID/UPR VORTICITY FOLLOWING
THE PARENT UPR LOW/WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA, AIDING IN THE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. THIS WOULD
PROBABLY BE FAVORED IN EASTERN AREAS PER THE GUIDANCE SUITE. POPS
ARE THUS A LITTLE HIGHER THERE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, MEAN MID/UPR-LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE IN THE TN/OH VALLEYS AMIDST AN INCREASE IN UPR
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT-FLOW JET. THIS
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOWS LEADING TO FURTHER CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA. THIS ACTUALLY GOES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK DOWNBURST"Y" BOTH DAYS, WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND HIGH VERTICAL
THETA-E DIFFERENCES PRESENT. CURRENTLY, WE'RE JUST OUTLOOKED FOR
"GENERAL" THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH MAY BE OWING PARTLY TO THE
COVERAGE EXPECTED, HOWEVER, THIS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY THICK CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORM PRESENCE, CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL SUMMER-LIKE WITH HEAT INDICES STILL PUSHING
100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DAILY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
SO EXTREME HEAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT AT THIS POINT.
WITH THAT SAID, HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK WHICH WILL POSE A
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT OR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING OR HYDRATION.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME, AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2" MAY ALSO
RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION, AN UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS; HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOWER VIS AND CIGS (DOWN TO IFR/LIFR) WILL
AGAIN OCCUR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN IN THE TAFS
FOR BOTH TERMINALS BY 10/11Z. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO ERODE
THROUGH 13Z OR SO, WITH VFR RETURNING FOR MID TO LATE MORNING.
THEN, ANOTHER DAY OF LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FORECAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK; HOWEVER, THESE MAY BRING
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIGS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO DEVELOP. ANY ACTIVITY IS SLATED
TO THEN WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT
CALM WINDS AT NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26/KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26
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