838
FXUS64 KHUN 081535
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1035 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) ON
FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE FOG HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE THIS MORNING BUT VISIBILITIES
FINALLY IMPROVED AFTER 8AM.
TODAY, WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
TODAY, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY WILL BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE TODAY AND THERE IS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS
WELL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SCOOT SOUTHWARD AS THE WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH TODAY. COMBINED WITH LINGERING BOUNDARIES OUT THERE, WE'LL
SEE LOW CHANCES (20-60%) ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE NORTH OF
THE TN RIVER, CLOSER TO THAT BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST
OVER 1,000 J/KG, WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR AND HIGH PWATS JUST UNDER
2", LEAVING OUR MAIN HAZARDS AS GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S.
TONIGHT, WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
ON THURSDAY, THAT OPEN WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BUT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT SCOOTED SOUTHWARD
MAY STALL OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (20-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS CAN CREATE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A DOWNBURST WITH THE PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/KG, ML CAPE
1600-1900 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK (RISK LEVEL 1/5) ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIDING THROUGH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE UP IN
THE MIDWEST. FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK
EVEN BETTER FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE DOWNBURSTS. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS 3,000 J/KG, PWATS ~1.8, THETAE DIFFERENCE ~30C
AND PRETTY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOCAL STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. LOOKING INTO SATURDAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER
POTENTIAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
DOWNBURSTS. THE STORMS MAY BE THE MAIN STORY, HOWEVER DO NOT
FORGET ABOUT THE HEAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
STAY WEATHER AWARE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND ENSURE YOU STAY
SAFE INDOORS, OUTDOORS, AND ON THE GO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AS WE REMAIN IN A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT WILL KEEP MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DAILY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
SO EXTREME HEAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT AT THIS POINT.
WITH THAT SAID, HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK WHICH WILL POSE A
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE
HEAT OR THOSE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING OR HYDRATION.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME, AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2" MAY ALSO
RESULT IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION, AN UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LOW STRATUS IN ADDITION TO FOG HAS FORMED OVERNIGHT AND SOME OF
THE FOG HAS BECOME DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. FOR THE TERMINALS,
THIS HAS LED TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT MSL, BUT VARYING VIS AT
HSV. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED TEMPORARY LOW VIS AND CIGS AT BOTH
TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z (BUT VIS DOWN TO 1/4SM AT TIMES FOR HSV). WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT ANY
FOG AND/OR STRATUS SHOULD ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING. THEN, THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK; HOWEVER, THESE BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND CIGS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN SLATED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
EXPECT CALM WINDS AT NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
SO DURING THE DAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page