247
FXUS64 KHUN 090859
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
359 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM (30-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECT TODAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) ON FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 95 TO 100
DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AT TIMES CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE.
MOST OF OUR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE COUNTIES HAVE
REMAINED CLEAR WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, WE HAVE
NOT SEEN MANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SO FAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUDS AROUND 4000 TO 6000 FEET SLOWLY BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA.
AS A TROUGH AXIS ALOFT THAT MOVES FROM NW MISSISSIPPI OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK, FORCING/MIXING SHOULD BREAK UP FOG
DEVELOPMENT WHERE IT OCCURS. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN AREAS THAT REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA BETWEEN
4 AND 6 AM AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 5000 AND 10,000 FEET TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND THICKNESS AS WELL.
LITTLE SHEAR IS SHOWN AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO NW ALABAMA
TOWARDS DAYBREAK TODAY HOURS TODAY. HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT
SBCAPE SEEN IN ANALYSIS, THINK SOME INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE TO TAP INTO. SO, MAINTAINED A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PUSH EAST AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER 1 PM.
HOWEVER, A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
THURSDAY. AGAIN, INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO MEAGER FOR ANY SEVERE
MICROBURSTS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 91 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SOONER THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH ESE THROUGH FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA
THROUGH DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUD COVER AND
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST(40-80%) INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. SBCAPE
CLIMBS HIGHER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000 J/KG IN MOST GUIDANCE.
BETWEEN THE BETTER INSTABILITY, LIFT, AND SOME SOUNDINGS SHOWING
THETA E DIFFERENCE VALUES INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 30 AGAIN,
SEVERE MICROBURSTS SEEM POSSIBLE. AGAIN THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 91 DEGREES.
MODELS SEEM TO BE SET ON THIS PATTERN OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN AL AND NE TENNESSEE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BE AMPLE
INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
WHEN YOU WAKE UP SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 70S. A MEDIUM TO
HIGH (30-70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A HUMID, TROPICAL AIRMASS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS CHALLENGED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN PVE WITH THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO HIGH (70-90%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY PEAKING DURING DIURNAL
HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2",
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL
KEEP THE HEATRISK IN THE MINOR (LEVEL 1) CATEGORY WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS IN THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, BUT WILL
NOT BE AS DANGEROUS OVERALL COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
LATELY.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BUT WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT ZERO DEGREES. GIVEN THAT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, INCLUDED MVFR
VSBY REDUCTIONS AS BOTH TERMINALS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT (06Z TO
08Z AT KMSL AND 06Z TO 10Z AT KHSV). EXPECT -SHRA AND -TSRA TO
DEVELOP OVER BOTH TERMINALS (~ 8Z AT KMSL AND ~10Z AT KHSV). THIS
SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING, BUT KEEP MVFR VSBYS IN PLACE
AT BOTH TERMINALS AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z AT KMSL AND 14Z AT KHSV.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 13Z AT KMSL AND 15Z AT KHSV. A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS WAS INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KTW
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