230
FXUS64 KHUN 091652
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1152 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECT TODAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO 60-80%) ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FLATTEN AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A ZONAL FLOW RETURNING FOR THE UPPER
COMING WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER
FAR NE ALABAMA AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAVE MOVED NE OUT OF
THE AREA. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS REFORMING
OVER NE ALABAMA. AND OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WAS APPROACHING OUR AREA. OTHERWISE WITH
CLEAR TO PARTY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AREA
TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH SW WINDS OF
5-10 MPH.
GIVEN THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND MORE DAYTIME HEATING, AM
THINKING THAT THIS SHOULD AT LEAST MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS OVERALL WERE HAVING ISSUES
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF WHEN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND ON A DIURNAL BASIS, BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (WHEN THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES RISING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
1.7" TO 1.9", SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME
STRONG, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO
LIKELY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE
VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90, WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEXES FROM THE MID 90S TO
101 DEGREES.
CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF, BUT NOT ENTIRELY GO AWAY AS WE GO
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED, AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS OF AROUND 5 MPH MAYBE
SUFFICIENT TO TEMPER MORE THAN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
IN A WNE-ESE MANNER ACROSS THE AREA DURING FRIDAY. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST, WITH THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IS THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. BEFORE STORMS ARRIVE,
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S, AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE MID 90S TO 103 ARE EXPECTED.
MORE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE SET TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THESE WNW UPPER FLOW DRIVEN UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL IN PART HELP
TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD COVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH A RISK
OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER COVERS ALL OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. TIMING ON
WHEN THESE STORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN, WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90, AND HEAT INDEXES FROM THE MID 90S TO 101.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A HUMID, TROPICAL AIRMASS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS CHALLENGED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN PVE WITH THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO HIGH (70-90%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY PEAKING DURING DIURNAL
HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2",
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL
KEEP THE HEATRISK IN THE MINOR (LEVEL 1) CATEGORY WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS IN THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, BUT WILL
NOT BE AS DANGEROUS OVERALL COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
LATELY.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BUT WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXPECTION MAY BE THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18-22Z WHEN A TSRA COULD IMPACT WITHER TERMINAL.
HAVE ADDED A TEMPO IN THE TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AWWS AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP.24
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