098
FXUS64 KHUN 092245
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
545 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO
60-80%) ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER 00Z, WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STOUT INVERSION FORMING BETWEEN 03-06Z.
HOWEVER, LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER CLOSER TO THE
STALLED FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE,
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN BANDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
IN A WNE-ESE MANNER ACROSS THE AREA DURING FRIDAY. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE SYSTEM MOVING MAINLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST, WITH THE GREATER PROBABILITY OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IS THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. BEFORE STORMS ARRIVE,
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S, AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE MID 90S TO 103 ARE EXPECTED.
MORE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE SET TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THESE WNW UPPER FLOW DRIVEN UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL IN PART HELP
TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE STORMS SHOULD COVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH A RISK
OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER COVERS ALL OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. TIMING ON
WHEN THESE STORMS OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN, WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES A TAD COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
TO AROUND 90, AND HEAT INDEXES FROM THE MID 90S TO 101.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
WE WILL REMAIN IN A HUMID, TROPICAL AIRMASS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS CHALLENGED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN PVE WITH THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD WILL RESULT IN MEDIUM TO HIGH (70-90%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY PEAKING DURING DIURNAL
HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2",
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL
KEEP THE HEATRISK IN THE MINOR (LEVEL 1) CATEGORY WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS IN THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION, BUT WILL
NOT BE AS DANGEROUS OVERALL COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
LATELY.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST BUT WILL PRIMARILY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ENDING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THUS OPTED TO EXCLUDE THUNDER FROM THE TAF. VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DECREASES
IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 14Z. THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-40%) CHANCE OF STORMS TOMORROW MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON YET
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. SUBSEQUENT UPDATES WILL REFINE STORM PROBABILITIES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RAD
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