598
FXUS64 KHUN 101710
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 857 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE CONCERNS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE THIS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK FRONT NEAR THE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID SOUTH CONTINUE TO
TRACK ESE TOWARD THIS TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WANE AS IT DROPS TOWARD OUT AREA DUE TO A
MORE STABLE, LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. IT IS
UNCLEAR AS TO HOW THIS EARLIER SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
OUR PROSPECT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY. SHOULD THIS
ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE IN BETWEEN 16-20Z, IT MAY
STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT, MITIGATING OUR SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SOLUTION WOULD DROP AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
THE AREA THAT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE SCENARIO, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREAT. ANY CONVECTION OVER THE AREA
SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET, WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION OCCURRING FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. BETWEEN 09-12Z, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA, WHICH SOME HI-RES SOLUTIONS ATTEMPTING TO BRING STORMS
THROUGH DURING THIS EARLY MORNING WINDOW. FOR NOW, THINK OUR
ELEVATED STORM PROSPECTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW LATE TONIGHT, SAVE
FOR OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
CONTINGENT ON WHAT ANY POTENTIAL MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION DOES
TO THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. POPS WILL BE VERY HIGH ON SATURDAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS (80-100%), WITH HI-RES
GUIDANCE BRINGING A FEW CLUSTERS OF SUBSEVERE STORMS DURING THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN A BREAK IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG, DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1100 J/KG,AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9 C/KM. THIS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING
WINDS/DOWNBURSTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WINDOW (2-10 PM). SPC HAS UPGRADED
THE ENTIRE CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THIS REASON.
CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS ARE AROUND 300 DEG AT 8-10 KTS, MEANING
SOME BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR AND THAT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT AS WELL.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES HOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL IMPACT CONDITIONS IN
OUR AREA -- WITH SOME 12Z SOLUTIONS FAVORING A LATER ARRIVAL TIME.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, DO ANTICIPATE A SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT SOME POINT AND IT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR
EVERYONE (ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS) TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS.
WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A THREAT, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING MAY RISE TO
THE FOREFRONT, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS ON SATURDAY
AND WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS TRACK/BACKBUILD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE OUR UNSETTLED PATTERN.
AS WE STEP INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE
PARKED OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED THROUGH OUR
CWA. MID LEVEL RIDING TO OUR NORTH WILL WILL KEEP THE SURFACE
FEATURES IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROMPTING MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED, THE
VERY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR OUR TYPICAL
SUMMER THUNDERSTORM THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES REGARDING ANY CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING.
ONE UPSIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL COME
WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY SAG SOUTH, DISPLACING OUR PESKY
LOW AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY. LOWER RAIN CHANCES OF COURSE ME WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGH
REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, HAVE A TEMPO AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME TSRA MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 20-22Z. AWWS AND AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. FAIRLY TRANQUIL TONIGHT, BUT ADDED A PROB30 FOR
SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24
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