849
FXUS64 KHUN 102335
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 857 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE THIS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK FRONT NEAR THE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPED SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS SERVED AS A FOCUS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTALLY SPEAKING, WE'VE DESTABILIZED
QUICKLY, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200
J/KG AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
ALL THIS TO SAY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIME FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 HOURS (WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT).
WHAT'S LESS CERTAIN IS HOW MUCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECOVER IN
ITS WAKE, WITH NOTABLY POOR LAPSE RATES AND LOWER CAPE VALUES TO
THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOW/STALL ACROSS OF JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY ANCHOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THUS, A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AND A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT (ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE BACK-
BUILDING AND REPEATED RAINFALL OCCURS).
AFTER 8-9 PM CONVECTION SHOULD WANE, WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION
OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BETWEEN 09-12Z, HOWEVER,WE'LL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG A BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, WHICH SOME HI-RES SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO
BRING STORMS THROUGH DURING THIS EARLY MORNING WINDOW. FOR NOW,
THINK OUR ELEVATED STORM PROSPECTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW LATE
TONIGHT, SAVE FOR OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES AND THIS
IS REFLECTED WITH 50-60% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND 10-40% CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
CONTINGENT ON WHAT ANY POTENTIAL MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION DOES
TO THE STORM ENVIRONMENT. POPS WILL BE VERY HIGH ON SATURDAY DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS (80-100%), WITH HI-RES
GUIDANCE BRINGING A FEW CLUSTERS OF SUBSEVERE STORMS DURING THE
EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN A BREAK IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WITH MLCAPE VALUES
UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG, DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1100 J/KG,AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9 C/KM. THIS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING
WINDS/DOWNBURSTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WINDOW (2-10 PM). SPC HAS UPGRADED
THE ENTIRE CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THIS REASON.
CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS ARE AROUND 300 DEG AT 8-10 KTS, MEANING
SOME BACKBUILDING MAY OCCUR AND THAT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT AS WELL.
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES HOW CONVECTION UPSTREAM WILL IMPACT CONDITIONS IN
OUR AREA -- WITH SOME 12Z SOLUTIONS FAVORING A LATER ARRIVAL TIME.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, DO ANTICIPATE A SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT SOME POINT AND IT WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR
EVERYONE (ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS) TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET WARNINGS.
WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A THREAT, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING MAY RISE TO
THE FOREFRONT, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS ON SATURDAY
AND WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS TRACK/BACKBUILD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE OUR UNSETTLED PATTERN.
AS WE STEP INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE
PARKED OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED THROUGH OUR
CWA. MID LEVEL RIDING TO OUR NORTH WILL WILL KEEP THE SURFACE
FEATURES IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROMPTING MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED, THE
VERY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR OUR TYPICAL
SUMMER THUNDERSTORM THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES REGARDING ANY CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING.
ONE UPSIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL COME
WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY SAG SOUTH, DISPLACING OUR PESKY
LOW AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT ON
THURSDAY. LOWER RAIN CHANCES OF COURSE ME WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGH
REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL THROUGH 9Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS
BETWEEN 4000 AND 10,000 FEET ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY AT THE
TERMINALS. EXPECT A WINDOW BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z AT KHSV AND 12Z AND
15Z AT KMSL FOR POSSIBLE -TSRA IMPACTS THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
WITH CIGS AROUND 10,000 FEET EXPECTED. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR -TSRA
LOOKS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. AGAIN, MVFR
VSBYS OR CIGS COULD OCCUR. IF TSRA OR +TSRA OCCUR, SOME LOWER
VSBYS OR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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