233
FXUS64 KHUN 111648
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 952 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON SUNDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
REMNANTS OF A NOCTURNAL MCS OVER TN/KY HAS PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT HAS SPARKED SOME CONVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SUBSEVERE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUBTLY
SHIFT ESE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
GIVEN THAT THE FEATURES TRIGGERING THE STORMS ARE VERY MESOSCALE
DRIVE, BUT THINK THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE 2 TO
10 PM (WITH POTENTIALLY AN EXTENSION TO 12-1 AM AT THE LATEST IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER THAN ANTICIPATED.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING, WE SHOULD BE VERY WELL PRIMED FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUFFICIENT
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY,
WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG, DCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG,AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9 C/KM.
THIS WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS/DOWNBURSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS). BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS WILL LIMIT HOW
MUCH STORMS ORGANIZE, BUT REGARDLESS A VERY PRONOUNCED DOWNBURST
THREAT REMAINS AND SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THIS REASON. SHOULD CONVECTION FOR A LITTLE
LATER AND MOVE IN DURING LATE EVENING HOURS, LOWER INSTABILITY
AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
ONE OTHER IMPORTANT NOTE: CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS ARE AROUND 300
DEGREES 10 KTS, MEANING SOME BACKBUILDING WILL LIKELY OCCUR
(ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION THAT ANCHORS ITSELF TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY). THUS, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS REASON, WPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. CONVECTION
WILL WANE AFTER 03-06Z, WITH ONLY A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
MAKE IT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, ANOTHER LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION MAY ARISE FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE/MCV FEATURE NOTED ON
SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO RISE TO THE FOREFRONT, DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS TODAY AND WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS
TRACK/BACKBUILD. A PRETTY SIMILAR DAY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY, WITH
POTENTIALLY AN EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOWER
INSTABILITY MAY HINDER THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT, BUT HYDRO
CONCERNS WILL STILL EXIST DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS, SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, AND WET SOILS. POPS FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%). THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC MODELS MEANDER THE UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OR NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MORE IN THE EARLY EVENING
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEFORE
INSTABILITY IS LOST. RAIN CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WSW INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THE CLOUD COVER (AFTER MIDNIGHT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED) WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO MISSOURI IN
MOST GUIDANCE. IT PULLS A WEAK WARM FRONT NORTHWARD WITH IT AT THE
SAME TIME. THIS SHOULD INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY
(ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON) SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
HINDERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, A STRONG UPPER RIDGE PIVOTS
SE TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AS A RESULT. THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONCENTRATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN
ALABAMA TO AN LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS, AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE
WEAK WARM FRONT (WHICH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO EASTERN MISSOURI). SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WEAK,
BUT GOOD AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY MODELS. SOME
STRONGER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH THE AREA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, THIS WARM
FRONT SHOULD KEEP US FROM GETTING REALLY HOT AGAIN. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND IT
WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID. THUS, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
(MAINLY 96 TO 104 DEGREES) THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A OVER A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO
HANDLE THIS THROUGH 22-23Z WHERE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND
HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A PROB30 THROUGH 04-05Z. AWWS AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS BROAD TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER,
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...AMP.24
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