471
FXUS64 KHUN 120309
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS (FEATURING A RISK FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING) WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING, BUT STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY-TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT BECOMING
AN INCREASING CONCERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM AN INITIAL POSITION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MO/SOUTHWESTERN IL INTO NORTHERN MIDDLE TN IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS (WHICH HAVE BEEN LARGELY INITIATED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEASTERN AR INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL THIS EVENING,
WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED SOUTH
OF THE TN RIVER BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BETWEEN 6-8Z. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS THUS FAR, BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 40-50 MPH), FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS
(PARTICULARLY IN THE RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTH). DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN BOTH MID- LEVEL ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS AND LOWER-LEVEL
STRATUS (AS WELL AS SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG IN LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCED WETTING RAINFALL THIS EVENING). HOWEVER, WITH A RAIN-
COOLED AIRMASS EXPECTED TO COVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNRISE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT
AND IN THE U60S-L70S.
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP INITIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW (TO OUR NORTH) THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW IN THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS, WITH
THE GREATEST SPATIAL CONCENTRATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM SOUTH-
CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND NORTHEAST AL/NORTHERN
GA/SOUTHWESTERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GENERAL STORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND
PWAT VALUES OF 1.8-2" WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS (UP TO 40-50 MPH), FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE MORE ABUNDANT (LIMITING HIGH TEMPS TO THE L-M 80S), WEAKER
LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REDUCE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (AND ITS RELATED SURFACE LOW) WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECAYING FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH BEGIN
TO TRAVEL WESTWARD IN THE FLOW AROUND A STRENGTHENING 500-MB HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION (THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY
EVENING (AHEAD OF A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS ATTACHED TO
THE LOW) BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY LATE EVENING. HOWEVER, LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE LOW) MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SAME LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AXIS (ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES) BEFORE DEVELOPING
FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE A RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL
LIE), WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD REGION-WIDE ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE DECAYING SURFACE LOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST TO REDUCE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE RISK FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. FORTUNATELY,
THE COMBINATION OF WEAKENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER RISK FOR STRONG-
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS EACH DAY. HOWEVER, AS SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-
LAYER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED, HIGH PWAT VALUES
(2+") WILL YIELD A PERSISTENT RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE L-M
80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH (INITIALLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOWER (BUT NON-ZERO) SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. THAT SAID,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (PARTICULARLY BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY). UNFORTUNATELY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. THIS, ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, WILL SEND HEAT INDICES BACK OVER
100F FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CLUSTERS OF MOD-HVY SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
(PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER), WE WILL ONLY INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUPS FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS THRU 3Z. OTHERWISE,
WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL AS TO OCCUR BY SUNRISE, WITH
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT BR/FG
IN THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME. DIURNAL WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CUCON BY 16Z,
WITH ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF TSRA EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN, BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN AL BTWN 18-0Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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