986
FXUS64 KHUN 120803
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
303 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 303 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING, BUT STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY-TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT BECOMING
AN INCREASING CONCERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION YESTERDAY REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE CONTINUE TO WANE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE. DURING THE DAY, A SFC
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE. NOT AS HOT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SOLAR
HEATING. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LATEST CAMS
SHOW AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH VERTICAL SOUNDINGS HAVING A MORE
SKINNY CAPE APPEARANCE WITH POOR LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
WIND SHEAR, STORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BECOMING ORGANIZED, BUT
A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT FULLY BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-65. AS A RESULT, THE SPC HAS PLACED OUT EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. PWATS ARE ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.8-2
INCHES MEANING ANY STRONG STORM CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (AND ITS RELATED SURFACE LOW) WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECAYING FROM MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH BEGIN
TO TRAVEL WESTWARD IN THE FLOW AROUND A STRENGTHENING 500-MB HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION (THAT WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY
EVENING (AHEAD OF A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS ATTACHED TO
THE LOW) BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING BY LATE EVENING. HOWEVER, LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE LOW) MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SAME LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AXIS (ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES) BEFORE DEVELOPING
FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE A RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL
LIE), WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD REGION-WIDE ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE DECAYING SURFACE LOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST TO REDUCE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE RISK FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. FORTUNATELY,
THE COMBINATION OF WEAKENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER RISK FOR STRONG-
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS EACH DAY. HOWEVER, AS SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-
LAYER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED, HIGH PWAT VALUES
(2+") WILL YIELD A PERSISTENT RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE L-M
80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH (INITIALLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING CENTERED
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOWER (BUT NON-ZERO) SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. THAT SAID,
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG-SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (PARTICULARLY BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY). UNFORTUNATELY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS
THAT DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S. THIS, ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, WILL SEND HEAT INDICES BACK OVER
100F FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, AND WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF LINGERING LGT
RA NOTED IN RADAR DATA WE WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS ATTM.
AS A RESULT, VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AN
OVERCAST AS LAYER IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT BR/FG IN THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME.
DIURNAL WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CUCON BY 16Z, WITH ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
TSRA EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TN, BEFORE
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN AL BTWN 18-0Z. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY, LGT SW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW AND A LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REDEVELOP BY 3Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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