388
FXUS64 KHUN 130347
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1047 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 903 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING BRIEF STRONG WINDS.
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON MONDAY-TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT BECOMING
AN INCREASING CONCERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
CONTINUES. HOWEVER, A SMALL PRESENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
AS INSTABILITY AND PHYSICAL FORCING IS MAXIMIZED ALONG BANDS OF
VORTICITY EXTENDING FROM A PARENT SHORTWAVE. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SMALL INTENSE CORES.
OTHERWISE, AS INDICATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
MINOR FROM A COVERAGE AND INTENSITY STANDPOINT. FOG AND SOME LOW
STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAINS FELL. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW THE APPARENT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST LOW CLOUDS,
IF NOT SOME FOG, IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NE AL. IT
WOULD BE NO SURPRISE TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS IS TYPICAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE NARROW VALLEYS OF NE AL.
ON MONDAY, A PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A 600 DAM DEEPLY STACKED RIDGE
SITUATED OVER IA/MN/SD/WI DURING THE DAY. AS THIS RIDGE DEVELOPS,
CLOCKWISE FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK TRANSLATES TO EASTERLY WINDS
IN MUCH OF THE MID/UPR LEVELS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPR LOW IN THE
TN VALLEY TO MOVE IN A RETROGRADE FASHION BACK TO THE WEST,
CROSSING OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SUFFICIENT HEATING, AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL TEND TO BE TOWARD
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, BUT PROPAGATION MAY TEND TO BE OPPOSITE OF
STORM MOTION, LEADING TO SOME STANDING WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND A
TENDENCY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN PWS ~2 INCHES,
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE WPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN FACT. OTHERWISE, SOUNDINGS MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS TO BE VERY SMALL, WITH "GENERAL" THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AS THE BROAD UPR RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON TUES, THE UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TREK TO THE WEST
BUT WITH EFFECTS STILL OVER OUR REGION. IN ADDITION TO THIS,
DEEPENING S-SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVECTION ON AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST DEEP LAYER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION, WITH PWS
REACHING ~2.1 TO 2.2 INCHES TUES AND WED. FORECAST THERMO
PARAMETERS AND SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
PRIMARY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING THE PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE GREATER ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE UPR LOW OVERHEAD, BUT
PUSHING WESTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY, ITS INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO WANE,
BUT ENOUGH PRESENCE OF REMNANT SHEARED VORTICITY TO GENERATE
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN...WELL THAT COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE PERIOD WILL TEND TO BE RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
ABUNDANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
RIDGING AT THE MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL WORK TO DISPLACE OUR LINGERING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN AT THE MID LEVELS AND WORK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OUR
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES DROP FROM AROUND 50%
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BELOW 30% BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HEAT WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH HIGHS MAKING IT
INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEEKEND HEAT INDICES TO CREEP INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PROPER HEAT SAFETY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES, A STRAY STRONGER STORM EACH AFTERNOON
WILL POST A SNEAKY SECONDARY THREAT BEHIND HEAT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AMONG THE STRONGEST
STORMS. MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AN UPR-LVL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
PRESENCE OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD, HELPING TO INSTIGATE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY PRESENT ATTM SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING, BUT BRING PERHAPS
LGT SHRA TO HSV ~0100-0200. OTHERWISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW MORNING, BEGINNING FIRST AT KMSL,
AND MAY BRING IFR (OR PERHAPS LOWER) CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES.
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND AGAIN IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY BY
~18-19Z AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO MOVE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT TAFS HAVE HEDGED OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CEILINGS/VIS,
BUT CERTAINLY LOWER CATEGORIES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR IN ANY HEAVIER
ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KDW
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