978
FXUS64 KHUN 131800
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ON TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THE
MAIN IMPACTS.
- A PROGRESSIVELY LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FROM THRUSDAY-SATURDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT BECOMING
AN INCREASING CONCERN BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE SW THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. A CORE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOOKS TO SETUP A BETTER CHANCE OF
SOME FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY (TN) INTO
NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING HOW WIDESPREAD THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE. EXPECT THIS
THREAT TO GENERALLY SHIFT SLOWLY SW OR WSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SEVERAL THINGS ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL: 1)
THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONSISTENT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW 2) A VERY SATURATED AIRMASS (PWATS OF 1.9 TO 1.9 INCHES), AND
TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL PRODUCED BY THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS (SOME
HIGHER CHANCES BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT) BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CLOUD COVER NEAR THE UPPER LOW (LIKELY NEAR CULLMAN COUNTY OR THE
BIRMINGHAM AREA) WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. HOWEVER, WHERE
SOME BREAKS OCCUR ISOLATED LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR WEST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER VIA UPSTREAM ADVECTION DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE WEST INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
UPPER LOW TO ITS EAST. THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW BY THEN WILL
LIKELY KEEP 60 TO 80 PERCENT COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY OVER LOCATIONS
NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
MORE EAST OF I-65, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE EVEN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PWATS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR AND
WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR FOR THE FLASH FLOODING CONCERN TO REMAIN
IN PLACE IN THOSE AREAS. MORE LOCALIZE FLASH FLOODING COULD STILL
OCCUR FURTHER EAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A BIT LOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING,
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT THE SAME, DESPITE MAYBE SEEING A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. LOW TO MEDIUM
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT THAT COULD ALLOW FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO BE A LITTLE MORE COMMON. LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES LESSEN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE
UPPER LOW IN MOST GUIDANCE SHIFTS FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND WEAKENS. WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE PUSHING SE ALONG IT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE
DISSIPATING. LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
RIDGING AT THE MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL WORK TO DISPLACE OUR LINGERING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN AT THE MID LEVELS AND WORK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OUR
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES DROP FROM AROUND 50%
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BELOW 30% BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HEAT WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH HIGHS MAKING IT
INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEEKEND HEAT INDICES TO CREEP INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PROPER HEAT SAFETY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE PARTAKING IN
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES, A STRAY STRONGER STORM EACH AFTERNOON
WILL POST A SNEAKY SECONDARY THREAT BEHIND HEAT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AMONG THE STRONGEST
STORMS. MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CIGS WITH VCSH CONDITIONS WERE KEPT AT KMSL
THROUGH 21Z. A PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA AND MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS WAS
INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT THAT
TERMINAL. FURTHER EAST AT KHSV, PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS WERE
KEPT WITH VCSH AS WELL. HOWEVER, A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA WAS
INCLUDED DROPPING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AT TIMES. AN ADDITIONAL
PERIOD OF -TSRA WAS INCLUDED AT KHSV BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FOR MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. AT KMSL, A TEMPO WAS ADDED BETWEEN 22Z TO 02Z FOR SOME
STORMS AND MVFR CIGS/VBSYS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD TEMPORARILY GO
LOWER. FOG WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW, BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN 00Z ISSUANCE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KTW
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