241
FXUS64 KHUN 140443
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1143 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 907 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEK WITH A LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY RISKS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A DEEP LAYER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NE AL THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE
RAIN/STORM BANDS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA PIVOTING WEST THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST AL. THESE
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AND DISSIPATE FOR THE MOST PART AFTER SUNSET.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST INTO MS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE BANDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TUESDAY, PRODUCING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVERALL ONCE AGAIN.
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN VALLEY AREAS AND UPPER 70S ATOP THE HIGHER
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE LOW MEANDERS SLOWLY WEST INTO AR AND OK ON WEDNESDAY, AND
NORTHWESTWARD INTO MO OR KS ON THURSDAY AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
A LINGERING CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY BUT WITH SOME DOWNWARD QG MOTION
INDICATED WHICH MAY TEND TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE PRIMARY
COMPONENTS OF THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL WORK TO DISPLACE THE PESKY SURFACE LOW, THAT HAS
PROMPTED OUR HIGH RAIN CHANCES, TO OUR SE. WHILE PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SHOWED DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
RECENT MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WETTER WITH RAIN CHANCE
OF 40-60% REMAINING EACH AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL HIGH IS NOT BRINGING IN AS MUCH DRY AIR
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IN FACT, OUR ENVIRONMENT
THERMODYNAMICALLY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THUS, EVEN WITH OUR FORCING MECHANISM (THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW) DISPLACED TO OUR SE, ANY SMALL BOUNDARIES OR OUTFLOWS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE PAIRED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AS A THREAT EACH
DAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF A STRAY STRONGER STORM OR
TWO. MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
WHILE OUR THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN UNCHANGED, ONE THING THAT THE
APPROACHING RIDGE DOES LOOK TO IMPACT IS OUR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK
TO WARM FROM HIGH 80S ON THURSDAY TO THE LOW 90S BY MONDAY. WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S, THIS WILL PUSH OUR HEAT INDICES NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS. ENSEMBLES REMAIN PESSIMISTIC REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF
HITTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN IMPORTANT FOR
THOSE OUTSIDE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD, EXPECT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AL THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR IFR CLOUD BASES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, BUT THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED. TOMORROW,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BRINGING
BOTH REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN SO ADDED THESE IN A PROB 30 GROUP. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH
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