959
FXUS64 KHUN 141906
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
206 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103-105
DEGREES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
7 AM SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH BMX AND OHX SHOW A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA, A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
EAST OF THE COLUMBUS, MS AREA. A BIT BETTER CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO
BE IN PLACE ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SO EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER TOWARDS NOON AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT.
A FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER BEFORE HEADING ESE INTO GEORGIA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FURTHER WEST. CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL HELP TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SOME. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD DURING THE DAY. NO SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE AND WITH THE VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IN PLACE,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOME FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR
IF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. GIVEN CURRENT
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY, HIGHS WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 80 TO 85 RANGE.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AROUND THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER
WEST INTO ARKANSAS AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD OCCUR WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OCCUR (MAYBE MORE SO
IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE). HOWEVER, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO STRETCH FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY DOWN OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE, A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
ULTIMATELY, ANTICIPATING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH MEDIUM CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN
BY MODELS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IF THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE AS MUCH (COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY), BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
MODEL PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.8-2.1 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.
LOOKING AT SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX, THIS PWAT RANGE FALLS
RIGHT AROUND AND EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.98 INCHES).
THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. WITH BULK SHEAR BEING WEAK BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH
DOWNBURST PARAMETERS NOT BEING MET, NOT ANTICIPATING A SEVERE
THREAT WITH STORMS AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS
WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF
YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS!
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S EACH DAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT NIGHT. WITH LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS, WE'LL ALSO BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EACH NIGHT WHERE THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
IN MOST GUIDANCE, RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME. THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXTEND
EAST INTO NW ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD REALLY LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO KEEP A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF THE
OHIO VALLEY SSE INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND NW GEORGIA. THIS
COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER STORMS IN THOSE AREAS BY THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RAISED HIGHS INTO THE 90 TO 93 DEGREE RANGE IN NW
ALABAMA AS A RESULT. THIS COULD PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN
101 AND 106 DEGREES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. FURTHER EAST, MORE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES MORE BETWEEN 100 AND 104 DEGREES. SO BE CAREFUL IF
WORKING OUTSIDE. TAKE HEAT ILLNESS PRECAUTIONS WITH ABUNDANT
BREAKS AND FREQUENT HYDRATION. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD VALUES REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT TIMEFRAME. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DEEPENS ALOFT,
FORCING ALOFT INCREASES SOUTHWARD ALONG IT INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TO MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS MORE AND LOWER THEM BACK INTO THE MID
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD EASE HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS,
BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102 DEGREES WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE. SO CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF OUTSIDE.
NOT MUCH CHANGES ON SUNDAY, AS THE AXIS UP THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP MEDIUM TO
HIGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AGAIN.
GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, MOVING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS FURTHER AND EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN WARM IN THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
ON HOW ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UPSTREAM EVOLVES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES SE VIA NW FLOW ALOFT, HIGHER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, SOME
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A DRYING TREND. THE GOOD NEWS EVEN IF THE
DRYING TREND OCCURS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REMAINS IN A TROUGH
PATTERN ALOFT WITH THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EITHER WAY. THAT
BEING SAID WITH HIGHS IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD REACH 104
TO 107 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY PARTICULARLY. SO THIS
PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER FOR POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORIES.
BY TUESDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR PUSHES QUICKLY SOUTH POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA
AROUND 1 PM. IF THIS OCCURS THIS EARLY, EXTENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE OFF AND TOO WARM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER MID 80S TO AROUND 90
MAY STILL OCCUR, BUT THIS SHOULD REDUCE HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS,
MAYBE BY QUITE A BIT. MODELS RIGHT NOW ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BUT THAT CAN CHANGE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 21Z. HOWEVER, AT TIMES, MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH -TSRA ACTIVITY FROM 18Z THROUGH 21Z. THESE COULD DROP LOWER
IF HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL OCCURS. A PREDOMINANT VCSH WAS KEPT WITH
LOWER MVFR CIGS AFTER 21Z AT BOTH TERMINALS ALONG WITH A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z FOR ADDITIONAL -TSRA AND MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER 01Z. HIGH CIGS MAY ALLOW
FOR REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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