951
FXUS64 KHUN 151114
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE CHANCES SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- HEAT RISK WILL REACH THE MODERATE CATEGORY OVER THE WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS MS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CAN
BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS AL. AS WE
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BANDS AND MOVE GENERALLY EAST TO
WEST. WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW FURTHER AWAY, EXPECT LESS
COVERAGE OF PRECIP COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY IS ONCE AGAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING. THE COMBO OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP KEEPS
AFTERNOON HIGH IN THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS,
BUT THE LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP AT LEAST
LOW CHANCES OF THURSDAY AS WELL. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF I-65 ON FRIDAY AS THE 8H AND 5H RIDGES BUILD A BIT MORE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO AR. POPS WILL INCREASE
TO MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES DUE TO ACCELERATING NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOW TO MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 231 CORRIDOR UP TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.
LOWS WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, INCREASING POPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY. AS THIS HAPPENS, H85 UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO
THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY WILL BRING AN INCREASING
RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER AIR IS PUSHED
INTO THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S WILL BRING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO THE 99-105 DEGREE
RANGE, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SOME TIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK,
AND WITH THAT COMES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CURB A HIGHER HEAT RISK. AT THIS RANGE,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE A DRIER (CAPPED POPS AT 30%) AND WARMER
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN RISK HIGHLIGHTED BY A
MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OUT OF 4) HEATRISK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. FOR NOW
KEPT IN PROB 30 GROUP AS COVERAGE AND TIMING IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...GH
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