183
FXUS64 KHUN 160831
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
331 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY CLIMB TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING THIS WEEKEND.
- HEAT RISK WILL REACH THE MODERATE CATEGORY OVER THE WEEKEND.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART A LOT OF OBSERVATION SITES ARE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES. CALM
WINDS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BELOW 1 DEGREE, COMBINED WITH A
MOIST SFC FROM ALL THE RECENT RAIN, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG COME SUNRISE THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD AND WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT. THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOW WELL OFF TO
OUR WEST. AS A RESULT, ONLY LOW CHANCES (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
QUITE MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL, A HOT AND HUMID SUMMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW AN MCV DEVELOPING OVER GA
RESULTING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG AN EXISTING SHEAR AXIS.
THE MODELS SHOWS THIS MCV SHIFT SLOWLY WEST INTO WESTERN GA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
TN VALLEY. THIS PIVOTS FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY, INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE ALSO DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THIS TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE
FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. IN EITHER CASE, LOW TO
MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE
LOW WILL IN PART INDUCE MEAN TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO START THE NEW WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUN. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE TO
THE EAST, WITH LESSER SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE WEST. WITH A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS, SEASONABLY WARM OR HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN, WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST, AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 104 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE SE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE GO INTO MON, ALONG
WITH MEAN EAST COAST TROUGHING MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL HELP RETURN MAINLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR MON-WED.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD
SHOULD RANGE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH SOME MID 90S ON TUE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 104 FOR THE MON-WED
TIMEFRAME. THE HEAT COULD BECOME AN ISSUE ON TUE, WITH AN AREA AROUND
GREATER HUNTSVILLE RISING INTO THE 105-106 DEGREE. THIS PERIOD IS TOO
FAR OUT TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORY THIS ISSUANCE, BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND FOR NEXT WEEK. RATHER WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PERIOD, IN THE LOW/MID 70S. A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD
BRING LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO MVFR CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AS A LOWER CLOUD DECK ARRIVES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND
LUNCHTIME BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE TERMINALS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO KEPT THEM WITHIN A PROB 30 GROUP DO TO
COVERAGE AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH
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