167
FXUS64 KHUN 170218
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 918 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- EXPECT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
- MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105
DEGREES. MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEATRISK ARE FORECAST NEXT
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
IN A LARGER VIEW, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW, WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. A
ZONAL WEST-EAST POLAR FLOW WAS MOVING OVER THE UNITED STATES AND
CANADA BORDER. THIS FLOW AS IT WAS ORIENTED IN A SLIGHT ESE MANNER
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, WAS HELPING TO KEEP SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
FIRES WELL NORTH OF THIS AREA.
LOCALLY, AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY FROM EARLIER
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS A
BIT MORE PLENTIFUL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MORE BOUNDARY INTERACTION. WITH
AN EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SW OF MUSCLE SHOALS, OTHER
ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS DISSIPATED. 9 PM TEMPERATURES WERE
FALLING THROUGH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, AFTER EARLIER HIGHS WERE
AROUND 90. AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER HALF OF JULY WITH SLIGHTLY
LONGER NIGHTS, WE CANNOT RULE OUT PREDAWN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY IN AND NEAR THOSE MORE FAVORED AREAS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE AREA, EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 103.
THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF A SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
"GENERAL" IN INTENSITY, WITH THE USUAL STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRI
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY
DAYBREAK SAT SHOULD COOL ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER REPEAT
PERFORMANCE LATER FOR BOTH DAYS SAT AND SUN, AS DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTANT HIGHER INSTABILITY BRING MORE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR STORM
INTENSITY WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 90,
WITH HEAT INDEXES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 105 (VERY SPOTTY COVERAGE
OF THE HOTTEST VALUES). DEPENDING UPON TRENDS, HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE MET OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISE A BIT MORE AND/OR COVER A LARGER AREA. THIS WILL BE EVALUATED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ON MONDAY, A DEEP LAYER NARROW TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20% OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, AND
DESPITE A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90-95F
RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ON WEDNESDAY, AND MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON THURSDAY. THE
HEAT RISK LEVEL WILL REACH MAJOR (3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACH 100-105F FOR MOST AREAS AND WBGTS REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE IN PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALONG THE TN/AL BORDER EAST OF
KMSL, MOVING EAST AROUND 10KT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
WE GO INTO THE EVENING AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. SOMEWHAT MORE HUMID LOWER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
TO OUR EAST SHOULD ADVECT WESTWARD IN THE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN
MVFR CIGS BEFORE DAYBREAK MAINLY AT KHSV. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY COULD RESULT
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRI AFTERNOON; THUS WILL KEEP
PROB30 CHANCES IN THE LATE PORTION OF THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RSB
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