925
FXUS64 KHUN 171621
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE PLATEAU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
BROAD RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS TODAY AND WILL
INCREASE HEAT CONCERNS. THANKFULLY, THE POLAR JET WILL KEEP THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WELL OF TO OUR NORTH. THIS MORNING, WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE COVERAGE ON RADAR AT THIS HOUR THAN WE DID
YESTERDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOOK FOR
CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LOW-MEDIUM (30-60%) THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAT IS ALSO AN INCREASED CONCERN. WE ARE
ALL AT A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2/4), AND EVEN THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE GOING TO REACH UP TO 103 DEGREES.
TONIGHT, ONCE CONVECTION DISSIPATES AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL
SLACK AND CLOUD COVER WILL START TO DECREASE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SET UP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT SKY COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO MORE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY, HOWEVER IF THEY DO, WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE,
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOG TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME SPOTS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: PRACTICE YOUR HEAT SAFETY THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY, THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT US CONVECTION TODAY WILL
SCOOT EASTWARD, PROVIDING A DECREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE. LOW
CHANCES WILL PERSIST DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS (20-30%) FOCUSED ON LOCATIONS EAT OF I-65. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN INTO TN. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST, MEDIUM
TO HIGH (50-70%), DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO WASH OUT HEADING INTO MONDAY, LEAVING LOW 15-20% POP CHANCES IN
PLACE.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND IN THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN
REACH UP TO 105 DEGREES. COVERAGE OF 105 DEGREES VALUES ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. REGARDLESS IF THERE IS A PRODUCT ISSUED
OR NOT, HEAT SAFETY NEEDS TO BE A PRIORITY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ON MONDAY, A DEEP LAYER NARROW TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20% OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, AND
DESPITE A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90-95F
RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ON WEDNESDAY, AND MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON THURSDAY. THE
HEAT RISK LEVEL WILL REACH MAJOR (3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACH 100-105F FOR MOST AREAS AND WBGTS REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR CALM INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING
CHANCES (30-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR KHSV. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER
CATEGORIES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25
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