446
FXUS64 KHUN 172334
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE PLATEAU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST
INTO NW AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FORMING OFF OF OUTFLOWS IN NE AL. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WHICH CAN REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
30-40 MPH. WILL MONITOR FOR TRAINING STORMS WHICH COULD CAUSE
FLOODING CONCERNS. STORM COVERAGE WILL START TO DIMINISH WITH THE
LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER, CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE AND
WINDS SLACK, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. IF CLOUD
COVER DECREASES FURTHER THAN EXPECTED, SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WHO RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY, COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: PRACTICE YOUR HEAT SAFETY THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY, THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT US CONVECTION TODAY WILL
SCOOT EASTWARD, PROVIDING A DECREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE. LOW
CHANCES WILL PERSIST DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS (20-30%) FOCUSED ON LOCATIONS EAT OF I-65. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN INTO TN. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST, MEDIUM
TO HIGH (50-70%), DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO WASH OUT HEADING INTO MONDAY, LEAVING LOW 15-20% POP CHANCES IN
PLACE.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND IN THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN
REACH UP TO 105 DEGREES. COVERAGE OF 105 DEGREES VALUES ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. REGARDLESS IF THERE IS A PRODUCT ISSUED
OR NOT, HEAT SAFETY NEEDS TO BE A PRIORITY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ON MONDAY, A DEEP LAYER NARROW TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO
THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20% OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, AND
DESPITE A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90-95F
RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ON WEDNESDAY, AND MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON THURSDAY. THE
HEAT RISK LEVEL WILL REACH MAJOR (3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY WHEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACH 100-105F FOR MOST AREAS AND WBGTS REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE GREATER
TN/AL PORTION OF THE TN VALLEY. DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED CONVECTION
HAS FADED AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. A SOMEWHAT DRIER LAYER ABOVE
850MB SHOULD HELP KEEP FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RECENT WETTING RAINFALL. STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR,
HAVE LEFT A PROB30 IN FOR TSRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RSB
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