023
FXUS64 KHUN 180544
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THERE
IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
SUNDAY.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING OR EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER-48.
A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OVER THIS REGION RANGED FROM
1.8" TO 2.1". DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT HIGHER INSTABILITY
EARLIER HAD YIELDED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A TRACE, TO OVER 1.7" IN THE BANKHEAD
NATIONAL FOREST OF SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY ALABAMA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING. HOWEVER IN A STILL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENCE
OF MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING, WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE RESIDUAL CLOUDS, A MUGGY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED, AS LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THOSE AREA BETTER SUBJECT
TO IT FORMING, ESPECIALLY IF WETTING (0.10" OR MORE) RAINFALL
RECENTLY OCCURRED.
WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
(MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON). SHOWER COVERAGE APPEARS WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, THANKS TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE, THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. STRONG HEATING WILL
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 90S, WITH CORRESPONDING
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES. THE UPPER END
OF THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A HEAT ADVISORY; HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE HOTTEST VALUES IS TOO ISOLATED TO JUSTIFY PUTTING AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY
EVENING. AWAY FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY (MOST OF THE AREA) OTHERWISE
WILL HAVE ANOTHER MUGGY, HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID
70S. A RETURN OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, AND MORE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 90S (WITH A FEW MID 90S), AND HEAT INDEX FROM THE UPPER 90S
TO 105 DEGREES. AREA COVERAGE OF THE HOTTEST VALUES MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A HEAT ADVISORY; SOMETHING WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TO
ISOLATED ON MONDAY. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD HEAT AGAIN
INTO THE LOW/MID 90S, AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
THE DURATION OF THE HEAT COULD BECOME A PROBLEM TO SOME, EVEN IF
CONDITIONS DO NOT "OFFICIALLY" REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AREA
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE OUTDOORS; NOT
LIMITED TO DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER, LIMITING YOUR TIME OUTSIDE,
AND TRYING TO STAY IN THE SHADE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD WILL INVOLVE A STRONG
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (850 MB TEMPS OF 20-23C) WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY, MAKING FOR A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HEAT RISK WILL REACH THE
MAJOR CATEGORY (3 OUT OF 4) FOR MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
~105F AND WBGTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
ANOTHER FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. AND EVEN BETTER, DEW
POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THAT MAY MITIGATE A LARGER FOG
CONCERN, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS OR LOWER WILL OCCUR DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25
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