613
FXUS64 KHUN 181642
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 912 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT RISK WILL BUILD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105
DEGREES LIKELY, AND POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING THANKS TO A
STOUT INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT AND A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL REDEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AMPLE HEATING WILL AGAIN ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S -- AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. NWS HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT
RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT WILL
BE DANGEROUS FOR THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AS WELL AS THOSE
WHO ARE WITHOUT PROPER HEATING AND HYDRATION. REMEMBER TO LOOK
BEFORE YOU LOCK AND STAY WEATHER AWARE IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
TODAY!
ADDITIONALLY, A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST, WITH THE FOCUS
BEING ALONG PREEXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES (ONE NOTABLY OVER NE
ALABAMA ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER). A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THE MAIN THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AGAIN FORECAST OVERNIGHT (SAVE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL).
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT RISK WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND A TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL CREATE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TENNESSEE VALLEY (AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS THAT REACH THE 105-109
DEGREE RANGE BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY). HEAT PRODUCTS MAY
BE NEEDED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS!
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON, THANKS TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CLIPS THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE, WITH MEDIUM-HIGH (30-70%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST, POPS WILL
LOWER TO 20-40% ON MONDAY AND 10-30% ON TUESDAY THANKS TO STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF FORCING. EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE,
WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD WILL INVOLVE A STRONG
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE (850 MB TEMPS OF 20-23C) WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY, MAKING FOR A HOT AND HUMID DAY. HEAT RISK WILL REACH THE
MAJOR CATEGORY (3 OUT OF 4) FOR MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S, HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
~105F AND WBGTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
ANOTHER FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. AND EVEN BETTER, DEW
POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY AT EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE BY 00-01Z, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...AMP.24
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