031
FXUS64 KHUN 190154
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3/4) HEAT RISK WILL BUILD
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105
DEGREES LIKELY, AND POTENTIALLY BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET
LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
LOW 70S OVERNIGHT. WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS DEPRESSIONS,
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. ON A LARGER SCALE, A MID LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE NE CONUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. COME SUNRISE, THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROMPT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF HIGH RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHILE OUR LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THERMODYNAMICALLY, A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PROMPT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS LOOK TO FIRE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY AND DROP SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE,
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DESPITE THE ADDITIONAL FORCING MECHANISM, WE WILL STILL BE LACKING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THUS, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH A
MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR
ANY STRONGER STORMS IS ROUGHLY FROM 2 PM - 8 PM.
OUTSIDE OF DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, THE BIGGER
THREAT FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE HEAT. THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS.
RIDGING LOOKS TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY HEATING UP FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES
SHOW 5-8 DEGREE TEMP ANOMALIES AT THE MID LEVELS, SUPPORTING SOME
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. PAIRED WITH OUR VERY
MOIST AIRMASS, APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA NEARLY EVERY DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. THE QUESTION FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS HOW WIDESPREAD 105 APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE
(CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY). CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF 105 TEMPS TOMORROW, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY WITH WIDE SPREAD APPARENT TEMPS OF 105+, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES. REGARDLESS OF
PRODUCT ISSUANCE OR NOT, IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE PROPER
HEAT SAFETY. WEAR SUN PROTECTION, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF
OUTDOORS, AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS IN CARS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A STRONG MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP A ROBUST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CORN BELT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE LOCAL
AREA IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE DELIVERING NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, "RIDGE RIDER" MCSS MAY START TO CLIP OUR AREA WITH LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE RISK OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN THIS PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND 20Z TOMORROW.
AROUND AND AFTER 20Z, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD A
STORM MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL THIS COULD LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN STORM LOCATION AND EXACT
TIMING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAD
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