432
FXUS64 KHUN 240255
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 THROUGH 7 PM
FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT; WILL INCREASE TO
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER, A BIT
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE A BIT MORE TO
THE SOUTH IN THE LATE NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS GO AROUND HAS
BEEN MOVING ALONG THE FRONT, THIS TIME MORE TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THERE MOISTURE CONTENT WAS HIGHER. THE
RECENT LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING FROM NE TEXAS, TO ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MS/AL/GA. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY, SHOWER
CHANCES SHOULD WANE AS WELL. SO FAR, THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE AREA; FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA, TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS; WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES AN AIRMASS CHANGES WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER, RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH.
SHORT AND LONGER TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY FRI. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY ON HOW NORTH THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING TIME. THE MODELS FROM NEW DETERMINISTIC
TO THE BLENDS WERE GENERALLY SHOWING OUR MORE SOUTHERN AREAS
GETTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. THIS
PLAYS INTO THE FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY ACTIVITY FOR OUR EASTERN
AREAS. AT THE MOMENT, WE WILL HANG ON TO THE FLOOD WATCH; THOUGH
NEWER TRENDS SEEMS TO KEEPING THE THREAT MORE TO THE SOUTH. MORE
CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
THE MID 80S SOUTH TO UPPER 80S NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BECOME LOWER FRI NIGHT, AS AN IMPULSE
PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRI
NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR SAT
WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BOUT OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. RAINFALL WITH THIS APPEARS COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY. DEPENDING IF AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS ON FRI,
EXCESSIVE RAIN ON SAT COULD ADD TO A FLOODING RISK. EXPECT ANOTHER
"COOL" LATE JULY DAY SAT, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
HEAVIER AND/OR GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE COULD MAKE FOR AN EVEN
COOLER DAY; HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END SAT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, AS THE FRONT
MEANDERS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN
THE LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION,
UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE WEAKER. THUS A TAD WARMER AS THE HEAT
RETURNS, PUSHING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
LOW/MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. COVERAGE OF THE HOTTEST VALUES
SHOULD BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A NW
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RISING TEMPERATURE TREND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY. HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES THIS WEEKEND AS HEAT
INDEX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM HEAT IS ON THE TABLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT/DEPTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME, WHICH BRINGS LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF RAINFALL
BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT, THEN MOVE MORE SOUTHWARD ON
FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS WERE HINTING AT A LOWER ALTITUDE CLOUDS RETURNING BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRI, WITH CIGS TO REDUCED TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
SHOWERS RETURNING FRI. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK OF
SHOWER/ THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP WITH MVFR
VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS FROM CONVECTION. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING LATE IN THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB
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