316
FXUS64 KHUN 241739
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
LESS THAN ANTICIPATED SO FAR TODAY, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT MORE
UNSTABLE. AS THE TN VALLEY REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SW US, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE AREA. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPARENT BY PWATS NEAR 2.3" HAS RESULTED IN THE INCREASED RISK FOR
FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES. THE MAIN
QUESTION TODAY WILL BE IF AND HOW MUCH THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
MOVES, AS IT SEEMS ANCHORED JUST SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER. THIS WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING ACROSS CULLMAN, MARSHALL,
AND DEKALB COUNTIES. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TOMORROW CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, SO
WE HAVE NO CURRENT PLANS TO EXTEND OR EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH THAT
EXPIRES AT 7PM TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BECOME LOWER FRI NIGHT, AS AN IMPULSE
PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRI
NIGHT SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR SAT
WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER BOUT OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. RAINFALL WITH THIS APPEARS COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY. DEPENDING IF AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS ON FRI,
EXCESSIVE RAIN ON SAT COULD ADD TO A FLOODING RISK. EXPECT ANOTHER
"COOL" LATE JULY DAY SAT, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
HEAVIER AND/OR GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE COULD MAKE FOR AN EVEN
COOLER DAY; HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END SAT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, AS THE FRONT
MEANDERS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN
THE LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION,
UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE WEAKER. THUS A TAD WARMER AS THE HEAT
RETURNS, PUSHING HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
LOW/MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS. COVERAGE OF THE HOTTEST VALUES
SHOULD BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A NW
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A RISING TEMPERATURE TREND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY. HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES THIS WEEKEND AS HEAT
INDEX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM HEAT IS ON THE TABLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST APPALACHIAN REGION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT/DEPTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME, WHICH BRINGS LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF RAINFALL
BACK TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BROKEN DECK
OF STRATUS CLOUDS HOLDING NEAR 2-3KFT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO INCREASING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER OR
NOT WE WILL SEE FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING, SO
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAY BE
NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DRIFTS NORTH MORE AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ006>010-016.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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