532
FXUS64 KHUN 250452
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, THE CENTER OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN RIM OF THE BROADER ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED VORT MAX WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN BY 12Z
SATURDAY (BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGHOUT THE DAY),
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT OF 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY VEERING TO
NNW AND STRENGTHENING TO 20-30 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO/SOUTHWESTERN KS
AND THE OK/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN (NORTH OF THE FRONT) WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE EVENING DUE TO A MINOR INCREASE IN LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE, REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
(PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT). ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS AS IF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FROM CENTRAL MO SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN TN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTHEASTWARD AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL AL BY 12Z
(POSING A RISK FOR LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL). DUE TO
EXPECTATIONS OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE REGION,
WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, RESULTING IN A GREATER SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS IF THE AXIS OF
CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY ALIGNED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS (AND ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON), SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, POOR LAPSE RATES AND PWAT VALUES IN THE 2.1-2.3" RANGE, THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE M-U 80S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROGRESS OF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WHICH COULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR CWFA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECISELY WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WILL LIE, AND IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION COULD BE
TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH/EAST. REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, STORM IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR, WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE GREATEST CONCERNS.
DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH NNW FLOW ALOFT OF
20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGER TO OUR WEST, THE SOUTHWARD
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL REDUCE PWAT
VALUES TO 1.6-1.8" AND THIS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF AN MCS (THAT WILL ORIGINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON), AS SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM MAY SURVIVE A LONG SOUTHWARD JOURNEY AND POTENTIALLY
REACH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
OUR REGION (FEATURING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND HIGHER CAPE) COULD
YIELD AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH TIMING OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
IMPLICATION ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO
BELIEVE THAT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN TURN, HEAT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-109 DEGREE
RANGE. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ONE BEING ISSUED LANDING
ON TUESDAY. MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL AS IT IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
DEPTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COEXISTING SFC LOW DIGGING INTO
THE APPALACHIAN REGION. RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK HAVE BEEN KEPT WITH
BLENDED GUIDANCE- REMAINING LOW (20% OR LESS).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, AS A RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA REGION-WIDE FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
AT BOTH AIRPORTS TO INDICATE AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
AROUND 12Z, WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
AT MSL/18-24Z AND HSV/20-2Z. ALTHOUGH CIGS REMAIN VFR AT THIS
TIME, CLOUD BASES WILL STEADILY DESCEND THRU 12Z, WITH LOW-VFR
CIGS (~3500 FT AGL) LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE IMPROVING
TOMORROW EVENING. LGT WNW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LGT WSW LATE
TOMORROW MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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