326
FXUS64 KHUN 251521
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1021 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY.
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CLOUDY BUT WARM START TO THE DAY WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND
TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S. BE SURE TO BRING A RAIN JACKET WITH YOU
TODAY AS HIGH CHANCES (UP TO 80%) ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS THANKS TO
A FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE SHEAR IS THE HIGHEST THIS MORNING BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH, WE
WILL HAVE PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 2" KEEPING THE PROFILE PRETTY
SATURATED AND WEAK MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOW BUT THE MAIN THREAT AS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP THE HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
TONIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER AND KEEP LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (20-40%) IN OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY REALLY DROPS OFF,
KEEPING THE MAIN HAZARDS AS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS
WILL HOVER AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
IN THE SHORT TERM WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS DOWN
ALONG THE EAST COAST. ON SUNDAY, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALLOWING
FOR PWATS TO FINALLY BE BELOW 2". THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING FOR ONLY LOW END
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30%). THE INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL FUNNEL AN MCS DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
OH VALLEY AND STRAIGHT INTO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS PUSHING BACK UP TO
2", HAVING BETTER LAPSE RATES AND DECENT INSTABILITY. MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THIS CONVECTION IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER THIS LONG WILL BE
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND TIMING.
THIS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW HOT WE CAN GET ON MONDAY. RIGHT
NOW, TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 106 DEGREES. THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE HEAT RISK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PUSH UP TO
110 DEGREES. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. AS WE ENJOY THE LAST OF SUMMER BREAK BEFORE SCHOOL
STARTS, PLEASE ENSURE YOU CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN TURN, HEAT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-109 DEGREE
RANGE. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ONE BEING ISSUED LANDING
ON TUESDAY. MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL AS IT IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
DEPTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COEXISTING SFC LOW DIGGING INTO
THE APPALACHIAN REGION. RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK HAVE BEEN KEPT WITH
BLENDED GUIDANCE- REMAINING LOW (20% OR LESS).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SCATTERED STORMS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH A TEMPO GROUP INCLUDED AT EACH TERMINAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH CHANCES OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PLAGUE BOTH TERMINALS. WITH STORMS NOT TIED
TO A SPECIFIC FEATURE, NAILING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING OF IMPACTS
WILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING TODAY. AT ANY POINT STORMS MOVING OVER
THE TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BEYOND WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE TAF. STORMS
WILL WANE AFTER 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD
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