531
FXUS64 KHUN 260121
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
RAINFALL FROM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE DAY
REDUCED LOCAL INSTABILITY AND LED TO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THE MID/UPR LOW THAT
HELPED TO INSTIGATE CONVECTION EARLIER HAS LARGELY MOVED JUST TO
OUR SOUTH ON ITS SOUTHWARD TREK. THUS, THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED
FOR THIS EVENING TO REDUCE POPS/WEATHER. OTHERWISE, A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR AN OLD
STALLED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY, WITH BEST CHANCES GENERALLY IN SW/S
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WAS JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE BROADER FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT A
LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
IN THE SHORT TERM WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STUCK BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS DOWN
ALONG THE EAST COAST. ON SUNDAY, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ALLOWING
FOR PWATS TO FINALLY BE BELOW 2". THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING FOR ONLY LOW END
CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30%). THE INCREASE IN
SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL FUNNEL AN MCS DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
OH VALLEY AND STRAIGHT INTO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS PUSHING BACK UP TO
2", HAVING BETTER LAPSE RATES AND DECENT INSTABILITY. MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THIS CONVECTION IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER THIS LONG WILL BE
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND TIMING.
THIS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW HOT WE CAN GET ON MONDAY. RIGHT
NOW, TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 106 DEGREES. THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE HEAT RISK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD PUSH UP TO
110 DEGREES. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. AS WE ENJOY THE LAST OF SUMMER BREAK BEFORE SCHOOL
STARTS, PLEASE ENSURE YOU CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE WORK WEEK WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN TURN, HEAT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-109 DEGREE
RANGE. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ONE BEING ISSUED LANDING
ON TUESDAY. MID WEEK, SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAVEL AS IT IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
DEPTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COEXISTING SFC LOW DIGGING INTO
THE APPALACHIAN REGION. RAIN CHANCES MID WEEK HAVE BEEN KEPT WITH
BLENDED GUIDANCE- REMAINING LOW (20% OR LESS).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
PREVIOUS RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO LIMIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHRA/TSRA
HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EXCEPT
FOR AREAS APPRECIABLY FAR TO THE WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
RESIDES. WITH THE MID/UPR LEVEL LOW MOVING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT,
FURTHER IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND ARE SMALL
ENOUGH TO FOREGO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SMALL
SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, PROMPTING
AMENDMENTS, BUT PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO BE LOW. PREDOM MVFR
CEILINGS MAY AFFECT KHSV OVER THE NEXT ~2 HOURS, AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...KDW
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