717
FXUS64 KHUN 271750
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1250 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST IN THE EAST. A
A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE TN VALLEY LEAVING US
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS HOUR. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP INTO THE MID 90S IN NW AL AND
THE LOWER 90S IN NE AL. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 103-112 DEGREES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS LED US TO EXPAND THE
HEAT ADVISORY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE NE AL AND UPGRADE PORTIONS OF NW
AL (LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN CO) TO AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING. THESE PRODUCTS WILL GO THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD TO THE I-65
CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF TRENDS PERSIST.
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR TWO TODAY, DUE TO THE HEAT AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE ANY GOOD LIFTING MECHANISMS IN PLACE. THE
MCS THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST TODAY IS FORECASTED
TO MISS US TO THE NE TONIGHT, HOWEVER WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, MAYBE INTO NE AL IF IT
CAN MAKE IT. FOR THIS, SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OUT FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN TO ACCOMMODATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IN SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AN INTENSIFYING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS PREDICTED TO
TRAVEL ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A
SURFACE LOW RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS NY/PA, WITH A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
LOW EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY NIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
CAMS INDICATES THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KY/TN, AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS AS IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BYPASS OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
OUR CWFA BY MID/LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON (AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS) AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS BEGINS TO
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGHER TO OUR NORTH/EAST (WHERE DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH), IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHERN AL. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES (M-U 90S)
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS (U70S-L80S) WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT
AXIS, WARRANTING ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY AND YIELDING HIGH CAPE OF
3000-3500 J/KG. THIS LEVEL OF INSTABILITY, COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN NNW FLOW ALOFT TO 20-30 KNOTS, SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE TN RIVER BEFORE THIS OCCURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE LASTEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG NNW FLOW ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RESPOND BY DROPPING TO
MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS (M-U 60S), WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE U80S-L90S. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS IF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS A COMPACT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION,
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW (AT LEAST
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS) AND SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
LIKELY INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AND MAY YIELD
AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND TRANSITION INTO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT W/NW WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY WEATHER MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25
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