424
FXUS64 KHUN 272302
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST IN THE
EAST. A A FEW STRONG- SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON THE SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
ONLY A FEW DEVELOPING CU OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AL. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE THE
DANGEROUS HEAT AS CURRENT HEAT INDICES RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 105 DEGREES. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR NW
AL AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING AREAS UNTIL 7PM
TOMORROW. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE BELOW 20% THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE TN VALLEY LEAVING US
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THIS HOUR. THIS WILL
GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP INTO THE MID 90S IN NW AL AND
THE LOWER 90S IN NE AL. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 103-112 DEGREES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS LED US TO EXPAND THE
HEAT ADVISORY EASTWARD TO INCLUDE NE AL AND UPGRADE PORTIONS OF NW
AL (LAUDERDALE, COLBERT, AND FRANKLIN CO) TO AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING. THESE PRODUCTS WILL GO THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY, HOWEVER THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD TO THE I-65
CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF TRENDS PERSIST.
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR TWO TODAY, DUE TO THE HEAT AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE, BUT WE DON'T HAVE ANY GOOD LIFTING MECHANISMS IN PLACE. THE
MCS THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST TODAY IS FORECASTED
TO MISS US TO THE NE TONIGHT, HOWEVER WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BRUSHING SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN, MAYBE INTO NE AL IF IT
CAN MAKE IT. FOR THIS, SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OUT FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN TO ACCOMMODATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IN SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT AS A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE SITS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND H85 HEIGHT RISES RESULT IN
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HEAT. WITH THE BETTER FORCING FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHEAST TOMORROW, THE HEAT WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS FORECAST HEAT INDICES CLIMB OVER 110
DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF NW AL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS WITHOUT PROPER HEAT RESISTANT
CLOTHING AND HYDRATION. AS ALWAYS, REMEMBER TO LOOK BEFORE YOU
LOCK AND NEVER LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES!
AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE AREA
THAT WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE INTENSE HUMIDITY WE HAVE
FELT LATELY. AS THIS HAPPENS, WE DO EXPECT A CLUSTER OR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EITHER AHEAD OF OR RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MEDIUM RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THE RAINFALL MAY BE. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND COOLER
HIGHS (IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL FOLLOW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE LASTEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG NNW FLOW ALOFT AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE 60S, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RESPOND BY DROPPING TO
MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS (M-U 60S), WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE U80S-L90S. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS AS IF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS A COMPACT SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION,
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW (AT LEAST
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS) AND SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
LIKELY INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AND MAY YIELD
AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND TRANSITION INTO A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMSL
AND KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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