386
FXUS64 KHUN 280548
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST IN THE
EAST. A A FEW STRONG- SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG EXISTS IN
RESPONSE TO CALM WINDS AND LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. LIMITED
CLOUD COVER SHIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD DISSUADE FOG FROM
BECOMING VERY DENSE AND/OR WIDESPREAD. IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS, IT
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TONIGHT.
TUESDAY, HEAT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 105-110+ DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NW
AL. BOTH OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE VALID UNTIL 00Z/7PM CDT TUESDAY AND
WE DO NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THE NEED TO EXTEND THEM. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS, BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND SEEK SHADE
IN ADDITION TO STAYING HYDRATED TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE WILL BE MONITORING
TWO POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL
BE AROUND 01-05Z AS A SYSTEM CLIPS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN,
BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND PERIOD OF CONCERN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO NW AL
AROUND 09-12Z, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS WINDOW WILL
LIKELY NOT SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT WITH ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT AS PWATS SIT
COMFORTABLY IN THE 2.2-2.4" RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
DAILY MAX PER SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE LATE MORNING AS THEY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WE MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE
(20% OR LESS) OF THUNDERSTORMS (PRIMARILY IN NW AL) IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING. THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SPATIALLY, IF REALIZED.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S (BELOW
LOCAL HEAT PRODUCT CRITERIA). WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TN VALLEY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DURING THIS TIME, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 60S (WHICH SHOULD FEEL
LIKE RELIEF AFTER EXPERIENCING 70S-80S THIS WEEK). HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE ARE MONITORING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF AN
INCREASING LLJ (~40 KTS). HAVE CONTINUED BLENDED GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, ITS RECOMMENDED TO CHECK BACK IN FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A BROKEN VEIL OF HIGH-LVL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CALM WINDS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z, WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 8G16 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE LOCALLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED CU FIELD BY
15Z. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN AL LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING, VEERING WINDS
TO NNE IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP INVOF THIS
FEATURE (PARTICULARLY FROM HSV EASTWARD), PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page