653
FXUS64 KHUN 280735
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST IN THE
EAST. A A FEW STRONG- SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS DROP CLOSER TO ZERO. LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
WITH BEST CHANCES IN NW ALABAMA WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.
THROUGH THE MORNING, RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
PUSH NORTH AND EAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE,
TEMPS WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
HIGHS LOOK TO HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S! PAIRED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. NOW, HIRES GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A LITTLE DRIER THAN
THE NBM AND SHOWS SOME MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD LOWER
DEWPOINTS 2-3 DEGREES. IF THIS IS REALIZED, CURRENT FORECASTED
HEAT INDICES (105-111) MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. THAT SAID, EVEN
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS, MODELS STILL SHOW HIGH (70-90%)
CHANCES OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES AREA WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUS, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE DEW POINT IS, IT WILL BE VERY HOT.
MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY THROUGH THE DAY AND LIMIT
TIME OUTDOORS WHEN POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE WILL BE MONITORING
TWO POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND COLD FRONT
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THE FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL
BE AROUND 01-05Z AS A SYSTEM CLIPS NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN,
BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SECOND PERIOD OF CONCERN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO NW AL
AROUND 09-12Z, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS WINDOW WILL
LIKELY NOT SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT WITH ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT AS PWATS SIT
COMFORTABLY IN THE 2.2-2.4" RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
DAILY MAX PER SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY AT BMX. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE LATE MORNING AS THEY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WE MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE
(20% OR LESS) OF THUNDERSTORMS (PRIMARILY IN NW AL) IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL HEATING. THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED SPATIALLY, IF REALIZED.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S (BELOW
LOCAL HEAT PRODUCT CRITERIA). WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, NW
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TN VALLEY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DURING THIS TIME, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 60S (WHICH SHOULD FEEL
LIKE RELIEF AFTER EXPERIENCING 70S-80S THIS WEEK). HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE ARE MONITORING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF AN
INCREASING LLJ (~40 KTS). HAVE CONTINUED BLENDED GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, ITS RECOMMENDED TO CHECK BACK IN FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A BROKEN VEIL OF HIGH-LVL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CALM WINDS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG IN A FEW
LOCATIONS AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z, WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 8G16 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE LOCALLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED CU FIELD BY
15Z. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN AL LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING, VEERING WINDS
TO NNE IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP INVOF THIS
FEATURE (PARTICULARLY FROM HSV EASTWARD), PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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