643
FXUS64 KHUN 281753
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY THROUGH 7PM TONIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST IN THE
EAST. A A FEW STRONG- SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
- A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SOME OF US SAW PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE SHOWS IT
LINED THE VALLEYS BUT THAT HAS DISSIPATED AT THIS HOUR.
WE REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
RIDGE WILL EXPAND A LITTLE EASTWARD TODAY, PROVIDING US ONE MORE
DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT. AS WE TRY TO ENJOY THE LAST OF SUMMER
BREAK BEFORE SCHOOL STARTS UP, LETS BE SURE TO STAY SAFE IN THE
HEAT. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (HEAT INDEX 110+) REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NW AL AND THE REST OF US ARE IN A HEAT
ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX 105+) UNTIL 7PM. WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SUNNY
TO HELP WARM US UP INTO THE LOWER 90S (HIGHER ELEVATIONS) AND THE
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. WILL BE MONITORING DEWPOINT TRENDS TO SEE IF
THEY MIX OUT OR HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID SO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE TN VALLEY, AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CAMS ARE NOT IN A SOLID AGREEMENT,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN LINE WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 00-06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AIRMASSES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH PWATS OVER
2.2", OVERALL CONVERGENCE/FORCING DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALL HAPPEN AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME
OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TOMORROW AS WELL
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST, BRINGING A RELIEF FROM THE
DANGEROUS 100+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR NW AL LAST, AND WE WILL KEEP LOW END
POPS CAPPED AT 30% THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
FROM THERE, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WE ARE MONITORING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY SHIFTING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA AND BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF AN
INCREASING LLJ (~40 KTS). HAVE CONTINUED BLENDED GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, ITS RECOMMENDED TO CHECK BACK IN FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CHANCES SO LOW (<20%) WE LEFT TSRA OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL RADAR TRENDS WARRANT ADDING WEATHER TO
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WEST
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ001>003.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ004>010-016.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25
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