901
FXUS64 KHUN 290451
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCES (50%-80%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AND HAVE ALLOWED
THE HEAT HAZARD PRODUCTS TO EXPIRE ON TIME. HEAT INDEX
OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK SO WOULD STILL
USE CAUTION IF PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WILL NOT MAKE IT EASY FOR THE
BODY TO COOL ITSELF SO CONTINUE TO HYDRATE AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS, EVEN AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT. WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH LOCALLY BUT WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 LATE TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE LINE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH 10-30
PERCENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE SETUP FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL LEAVE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNDER
PREVAILING NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE REGION REMAINS IN
BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE EAST CENTERED OVER NY ON WEDNESDAY AND
RIDGE TO THE WEST ACROSS NM AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND BY THURSDAY MORNING PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 1.0" ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO FALL AND HIGHS WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO SEE
A REPRIEVE BY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MID-60S WHICH WILL BE A VERY
WELCOME CHANGE. OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
REMAIN DRY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WEATHER
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS A
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROUGH WITH
THE EPS SHOWING A STRONGER TROUGH CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND THE
GEFS REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE FOR THE FINER
DETAILS OF ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY EVOLVE AS MODELS BECOME
MORE IN SYNC IN THE COMING DAYS. MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK IF
PLANNING ANYTHING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST CAN AND
WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....KG
AVIATION...RAD
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