314
FXUS64 KHUN 291810
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
110 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 959 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NW AL TO NEAR CULLMAN COUNTY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50%-80%) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AFTER A DANGEROUSLY HOT DAY YESTERDAY, WE ARE VERY HAPPY TO EXPECT
HIGHS OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE HIGH THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE 95 TO 100
DEGREE RANGE. CURRENTLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW ALABAMA SE INTO
CULLMAN COUNTY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE HANGING
AROUND IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
PUSHING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, THERE
EXISTS A LOW CHANCE OF GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS CLOUDS
BREAK UP A BIT AT TIMES AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS WEAK,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, DESPITE BEING
VERY UNSTABLE. MAIN THREATS IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP WOULD BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY AS LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE OVERNIGHT (MAYBE SOME LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND NE ALABAMA). THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING
TOWARDS THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
DRY AND MUCH NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES, EVEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER TOWARDS THE AL/MS BORDER, BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
BY THE EVENING HOURS, THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD STRETCH ALONG THE
MS/AL BORDER OR JUST TO ITS WEST. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY, THIS
LOOKS TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE FOR LOW/MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. NO SHEAR IS SHOWN IN GUIDANCE, SO GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN WETTER, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHEAR STILL
LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK (ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS AT BEST), SO NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH PWATS CLIMBING AGAIN. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT RAINFALL EXPECTED, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS A
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THIS TROUGH WITH
THE EPS SHOWING A STRONGER TROUGH CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND THE
GEFS REMAINING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE FOR THE FINER
DETAILS OF ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MAY EVOLVE AS MODELS BECOME
MORE IN SYNC IN THE COMING DAYS. MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK IF
PLANNING ANYTHING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST CAN AND
WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KG
AVIATION...KTW
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