109
FXUS64 KHUN 291943
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
243 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 959 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NW AL TO NEAR CULLMAN COUNTY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50%-80%) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS, THE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN
ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED UPPER 60S TO AROUND 75 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS ALREADY. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE PICKED
UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THE ADVECTION
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT (MAYBE SOME LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NE ALABAMA). THIS DRIER AIR
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TOWARDS THE DAYBREAK HOURS ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
DRY AND MUCH NICER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES, EVEN IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER TOWARDS THE AL/MS BORDER, BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
BY THE EVENING HOURS, THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD STRETCH ALONG THE
MS/AL BORDER OR JUST TO ITS WEST. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY, THIS
LOOKS TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE FOR LOW/MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. NO SHEAR IS SHOWN IN GUIDANCE, SO GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN WETTER, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHEAR STILL
LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK (ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS AT BEST), SO NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH PWATS CLIMBING AGAIN. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENT RAINFALL EXPECTED, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE SURFACE FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND IN MOST
GUIDANCE STALLS SOMEWHERE NEAR EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO NW GEORGIA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
FORCING SHIFTS EAST INTO GEORGIA NNE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THAT, AN UPPER LOW FORMS IN THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD UPPER
LEVEL LIFT. INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHTER (DUE TO
LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT AND FORCING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN). THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER TO BE FAIRLY ROUTINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR A CONTINUING COOL PERIOD OVER THE
AREA WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY.
THIS UPPER LOW IS PULLED NORTH OR NORTHWEST TOWARDS ANOTHER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA. WITH
MORE MORNING SUNSHINE AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO EDGE
INTO NE ALABAMA FROM THE EAST, HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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