400
FXUS64 KHUN 310303
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50%-90%) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (30-60%). TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THEN.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE. IN FACT, CURRENT TEMPS ARE STARTING TO DIP BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS AND WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S BY NEAR SUNRISE. WITH THE DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC, NO FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW BUT WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AS AN UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
OZARKS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS HUMIDITY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NW AL AROUND SUNSET. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN NW AL. STAY HYDRATED AND DO NOT LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS
UNATTENDED IN HOT VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE LOWER OH AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS, FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW AL BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL PROGRESS EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HAS
RESULTED IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. ANY
SOUTHWARD DEVIATIONS THAT RESULT IN HEAVIER RAIN BEING PUSHED TO
OUR SOUTH LATE SATURDAY MORNING COULD BLOCK THE BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD
RESULT IN STRONGER SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR APPEARS WEAKER (<30KTS), LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW DECENT CURVATURE/VEERING FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1KM
THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW TORNADO
THREAT. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE
SEE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH AFTER THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST AS PWATS RANGE FROM
2.2-2.3" WHEN MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE
LATER IN THE DAY. SO DEFINITELY KEEP THE DUAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING IN MIND WHEN MAKING OUTDOOR PLANS ON
SATURDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
EVENING AND STORMS COULD EVEN EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE EXISTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LINGERING RAINFALL FROM AN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT FRONT THAT SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SUBSIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., BRINGING DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
NOW, KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM POPS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WITHIN ENSEMBLES. THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM, A GRADUAL WARM UP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER (OR LACK THEREOF) OVER THE AREA.
IF POPS AND COEXISTING CLOUD COVER TREND DOWN AS WE APPROACH NEXT
WEEK, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER, NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VAR WINDS. DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC
SHOULD KEEP FOG FORMATION AT BAY TONIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25
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