516
FXUS64 KHUN 310813
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
313 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 313 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40%-80%)
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ALTHOUGH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGIME, A LIGHT ENE-CALM WIND (PROVIDED BY A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER-OH VALLEY) WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY MIST AND FOG AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE
M-U 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS REGION
FROM THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CYCLONES WARM SECTOR. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE MOIST PLUME (FROM
NORTHERN MS/SOUTHWESTERN TN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST), BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF OUR CWFA WILL
REMAIN ON NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS AXIS. THUS, WE WILL ONLY
ADVERTISE A LOW (10-25%) POP IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21-0Z. SHOULD ANY
STORMS IMPACT OUR REGION, WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE ONLY UP TO 500-1000
J/KG SUGGEST THAT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
MOST SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS. IN SPITE OF A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (M80S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN AND U80S-L90S
IN THE VALLEY).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE LOWER OH AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEYS, FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW AL BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL PROGRESS EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT HAS
RESULTED IN A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW STRONG OR
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. ANY
SOUTHWARD DEVIATIONS THAT RESULT IN HEAVIER RAIN BEING PUSHED TO
OUR SOUTH LATE SATURDAY MORNING COULD BLOCK THE BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD
RESULT IN STRONGER SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR APPEARS WEAKER (<30KTS), LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW DECENT CURVATURE/VEERING FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1KM
THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW TORNADO
THREAT. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE
SEE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH AFTER THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST AS PWATS RANGE FROM
2.2-2.3" WHEN MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE
LATER IN THE DAY. SO DEFINITELY KEEP THE DUAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING IN MIND WHEN MAKING OUTDOOR PLANS ON
SATURDAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
EVENING AND STORMS COULD EVEN EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE EXISTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LINGERING RAINFALL FROM AN
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT FRONT THAT SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SUBSIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., BRINGING DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR
NOW, KEEPING LOW TO MEDIUM POPS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WITHIN ENSEMBLES. THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM, A GRADUAL WARM UP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER (OR LACK THEREOF) OVER THE AREA.
IF POPS AND COEXISTING CLOUD COVER TREND DOWN AS WE APPROACH NEXT
WEEK, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER, NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CI CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PATCHY BR/FG (CAPABLE OF
BRIEF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS) WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION GIVEN A CALM TO LGT ENE FLOW. HOWEVER, WE WILL
MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE INCLUDING THIS IN THE CURRENT TAFS. LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO SSW AND STRENGTHEN TO 5-10 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS IA. THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN BOTH THE COVERAGE
AND DENSITY OF AS/CS BY LATE AFTN, WITH A NARROW AXIS OF SHRA
(INITIALLY CONFINED TO NW AL EARLY TOMORROW EVENING) EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD BTWN 0-6Z SATURDAY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...HC
AVIATION...70/DD
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