000
FXUS64 KHUN 011123
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES MAY OCCUR
TODAY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (50-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THEN DECREASE TO LOW CHANCES (20% OR LESS) THROUGH MID
WEEK, WITH THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT RETURNING TOWARD THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE OZARKS LAST EVENING
IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS OF
08Z. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH,
BUT A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
SOME HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY FILLING IN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN
THREAT.
OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, TRIGGERING A SECOND AND POTENTIALLY
MORE ROBUST ROUND OF CONVECTION. ONE ASPECT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY IS HOW LONG ELEVATED MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD THEY LINGER UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
IT MAY LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL BREAK WILL TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS.
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM, AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1100-1300 WOULD SUPPORT
A DAMAGING WIND AND DOWNBURST THREAT. HOWEVER, 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 15-20 KTS AND BACKED SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
(AS HIGHLIGHTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS) MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
VERY LIMITED (BUT NON-ZERO) THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. PWATS
OVER 2" WILL ALSO SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS AND
A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SLOWS DOWN. FOR THIS REASON, WPC HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING (1 PM TO 8 PM), WITH
CONVECTION WANING AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE STORMS, RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CARRY A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN IN/EASTERN KY BEFORE GIVING WAY
TO HIGH PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE NO SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 0.1" WHICH SHOULD NOT
PROLONG ANY LINGERING FLOODING. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FEEL A BIT REFRESHING AS WELL
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DICTATED BY THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DISAGREEMENTS, HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SO FAR IS THAT
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CREATE DAILY
LOW CHANCES (20% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE REALIZED, THE ONLY DAY THAT COULD SUPPORT A LOW
CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS AT THIS TIME WOULD BE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LREF SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (SFC CAPE > 1000 J/KG)
ALONG WITH GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR. OTHERWISE, A GRADUAL WARMING
PATTERN WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 90S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S/70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
MID-MORNING, PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS
DURING THE 12-16Z WINDOW. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING IF A TSRA
IMPACTS EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-00Z. AWWS AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AFTER 00Z, TSRA/SHRA SHOULD
DIMINISH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, BUT LOW STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO
BUILD IN BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 8-9TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A
40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24
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