172
FXUS64 KHUN 011754
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES MAY OCCUR
TODAY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (50-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY LINGER (THOUGH MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- LOWER CHANCES (20-40) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT RETURNING TOWARD
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AT THIS TIME. FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST TO TO WEST OF NASHVILLE, TN SW
INTO THE MEMPHIS, TN AREA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO, SOME ORGANIZED ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS HAVE
STARTED TO SHOW UP NEAR NASHVILLE. EXPECT THAT AREA WILL BE THE
INITIATION AREA FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SSW TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA AND PUSH EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL TIMING HAS SLOWED JUST BY AN HOUR OR TWO WITH NEW
GUIDANCE, SUGGESTING THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WOULD NOW BE
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 11 PM TODAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF OUR THREE
WESTERN COUNTIES (LAUDERDALE/COLBERT/FRANKLIN COUNTIES - AL) WILL
SEE OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES COULD BE
CLIPPED BRIEFLY BY THIS LINE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THREATS ARE STILL THE SAME WITH JUST ENOUGH SHEAR, HELICITY, AND
INSTABILITY STILL BEING FORECAST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MOST COMMON THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THOUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH
PWATS STILL FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES, FLASH FLOODING
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS INCLUDED NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE COUNTIES IN A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH. HOWEVER, SHEAR IN CURRENT MESO-ANLYSIS IS LAGGING
MORE TO THE NORTH THAN CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT AND LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE, SO CONFIDENCE IN A WATCH IS LOW (ONLY 40%).
IF ONE WAS ISSUED, IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN A WATCH OVERALL IS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WITH SOME STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME
TEMPORARY CLEARING OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER TIME ON SUNDAY
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER) IN THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON). BETTER SHEAR IS WELL EAST OF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IN MOST GUIDANCE. SO, GENERAL SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING SEVERE. DUE
TO COLD AIR ADVECTION, CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
HIGHS SHOULD BE RATHER COOL, ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS MORE
SSE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS UPPER LOW,
NOT REALLY SEEING AMPLE SHEAR OR INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SOME TRAINING OF
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND MAYBE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LOW. A BIT
MORE MORNING SUNSHINE COULD ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB A TAD HIGHER, BUT
STILL GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP
OUT INT THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 85 DEGREES OR SO.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND THEN NW AS AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DRAWS IT THAT
DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD KEEP MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TOO MEAGER
FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO AN
OPEN WAVE THAT MERGES WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE CATEGORY.
GFS SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS ALOT LIKE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT THIS TIME. SO
STAYING WITH LOWER POP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (20-40%). HOWEVER,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCE
POTENTIAL IF THAT MATERIALIZES. AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING EXPECTED.
MODELS DO SEEM A BIT MORE CONVERGENT ON A WEAK FRONT (LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT) PUSH EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD KEPT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN, SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO WEAK FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS.
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES MAY BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 19Z. SOME
VCSH COULD OCCUR AT KMSL AROUND THAT TIME. BY 19Z VCTS WAS
INCLUDED AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH A PROB30 GROUP (KMSL - 20Z TO
24Z) AND A TEMPO GROUP AT KHSV (20Z TO 22Z) FOR POSSIBLE -TSRA
ACTIVITY AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. A PREDOMINANT TSRA WAS
INCLUDED AT KHSV AFTER 22Z FOR AN EXPECTED LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
STRONGER WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THIS WILL OCCUR FURTHER WEST. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS BECOMING
VFR AFTER 01Z. LIGHT WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINFALL SHOULD SET THE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 10Z (MAYBE EARLIER). THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD TO IFR OR LOWER VSBY IMPACTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES:
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 8-9TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A
40-60% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F DURING THIS PERIOD
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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